A multi-objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the UK: an application to historic drought reconstruction
<p>Hydrological models can provide estimates of streamflow pre- and post-observations, which enable greater understanding of past hydrological behaviour, and potential futures. In this paper, a new multi-objective calibration method was derived and tested for 303 catchments in the UK, and the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2019-08-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/3247/2019/hess-23-3247-2019.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818898621828956160 |
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| author | K. A. Smith L. J. Barker M. Tanguy S. Parry S. Harrigan T. P. Legg C. Prudhomme C. Prudhomme C. Prudhomme J. Hannaford J. Hannaford |
| author_facet | K. A. Smith L. J. Barker M. Tanguy S. Parry S. Harrigan T. P. Legg C. Prudhomme C. Prudhomme C. Prudhomme J. Hannaford J. Hannaford |
| author_sort | K. A. Smith |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Hydrological models can provide estimates of streamflow pre- and
post-observations, which enable greater understanding of past hydrological
behaviour, and potential futures. In this paper, a new multi-objective
calibration method was derived and tested for 303 catchments in the UK, and
the calibrations were used to reconstruct river flows back to 1891, in order
to provide a much longer view of past hydrological variability, given the
brevity of most UK river flow records which began post-1960. A Latin
hypercube sample of 500 000 parameterisations for the GR4J model for each
catchment were evaluated against six evaluation metrics covering all aspects
of the flow regime from high, median, and low flows. The results of the top
ranking model parameterisation (LHS1), and also the top 500 (LHS500), for
each catchment were used to provide a deterministic result whilst also
accounting for parameter uncertainty. The calibrations are generally good at
capturing observed flows, with some exceptions in heavily groundwater-dominated catchments, and snowmelt and artificially influenced catchments
across the country. Reconstructed flows were appraised over 30-year moving
windows and were shown to provide good simulations of flow in the early
parts of the record, in cases where observations were available. To consider
the utility of the reconstructions for drought simulation, flow data for the
1975–1976 drought event were explored in detail in nine case study catchments.
The model's performance in reproducing the drought events was found to vary
by catchment, as did the level of uncertainty in the LHS500. The
Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI) was used to assess the model
simulations' ability to simulate extreme events. The peaks and troughs of
the SSI time series were well represented despite slight over- or
underestimations of past drought event magnitudes, while the accumulated
deficits of the drought events extracted from the SSI time series verified
that the model simulations were overall very good at simulating drought
events. This paper provides three key contributions: (1) a robust
multi-objective model calibration framework for calibrating catchment models
for use in both general and extreme hydrology; (2) model calibrations for the
303 UK catchments that could be used in further research, and operational
applications such as hydrological forecasting; and (3) <span class="inline-formula">∼ 125</span> years of spatially and temporally consistent reconstructed flow data
that will allow comprehensive quantitative assessments of past UK drought
events, as well as long-term analyses of hydrological variability that have
not been previously possible, thus enabling water resource managers to
better plan for extreme events and build more resilient systems for the
future.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T19:34:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dcd0dc55b75a485b8bf1e92e5a0b9809 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T19:34:59Z |
| publishDate | 2019-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-dcd0dc55b75a485b8bf1e92e5a0b98092022-12-21T20:08:29ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382019-08-01233247326810.5194/hess-23-3247-2019A multi-objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the UK: an application to historic drought reconstructionK. A. Smith0L. J. Barker1M. Tanguy2S. Parry3S. Harrigan4T. P. Legg5C. Prudhomme6C. Prudhomme7C. Prudhomme8J. Hannaford9J. Hannaford10Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UKCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UKCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UKCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UKEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, RG2 9AX, UKMet Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UKCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UKEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, RG2 9AX, UKDepartment of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UKCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UKIrish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS, Department of Geography, Maynooth, Ireland<p>Hydrological models can provide estimates of streamflow pre- and post-observations, which enable greater understanding of past hydrological behaviour, and potential futures. In this paper, a new multi-objective calibration method was derived and tested for 303 catchments in the UK, and the calibrations were used to reconstruct river flows back to 1891, in order to provide a much longer view of past hydrological variability, given the brevity of most UK river flow records which began post-1960. A Latin hypercube sample of 500 000 parameterisations for the GR4J model for each catchment were evaluated against six evaluation metrics covering all aspects of the flow regime from high, median, and low flows. The results of the top ranking model parameterisation (LHS1), and also the top 500 (LHS500), for each catchment were used to provide a deterministic result whilst also accounting for parameter uncertainty. The calibrations are generally good at capturing observed flows, with some exceptions in heavily groundwater-dominated catchments, and snowmelt and artificially influenced catchments across the country. Reconstructed flows were appraised over 30-year moving windows and were shown to provide good simulations of flow in the early parts of the record, in cases where observations were available. To consider the utility of the reconstructions for drought simulation, flow data for the 1975–1976 drought event were explored in detail in nine case study catchments. The model's performance in reproducing the drought events was found to vary by catchment, as did the level of uncertainty in the LHS500. The Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI) was used to assess the model simulations' ability to simulate extreme events. The peaks and troughs of the SSI time series were well represented despite slight over- or underestimations of past drought event magnitudes, while the accumulated deficits of the drought events extracted from the SSI time series verified that the model simulations were overall very good at simulating drought events. This paper provides three key contributions: (1) a robust multi-objective model calibration framework for calibrating catchment models for use in both general and extreme hydrology; (2) model calibrations for the 303 UK catchments that could be used in further research, and operational applications such as hydrological forecasting; and (3) <span class="inline-formula">∼ 125</span> years of spatially and temporally consistent reconstructed flow data that will allow comprehensive quantitative assessments of past UK drought events, as well as long-term analyses of hydrological variability that have not been previously possible, thus enabling water resource managers to better plan for extreme events and build more resilient systems for the future.</p>https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/3247/2019/hess-23-3247-2019.pdf |
| spellingShingle | K. A. Smith L. J. Barker M. Tanguy S. Parry S. Harrigan T. P. Legg C. Prudhomme C. Prudhomme C. Prudhomme J. Hannaford J. Hannaford A multi-objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the UK: an application to historic drought reconstruction Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | A multi-objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the UK: an application to historic drought reconstruction |
| title_full | A multi-objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the UK: an application to historic drought reconstruction |
| title_fullStr | A multi-objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the UK: an application to historic drought reconstruction |
| title_full_unstemmed | A multi-objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the UK: an application to historic drought reconstruction |
| title_short | A multi-objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the UK: an application to historic drought reconstruction |
| title_sort | multi objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the uk an application to historic drought reconstruction |
| url | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/3247/2019/hess-23-3247-2019.pdf |
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