Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China
IntroductionGiven the rapid geographic spread of dengue and the growing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, it is imperative to understand the relationship between these phenomena in order to propose effective interventions. However, studies exploring the association between heavy rain...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1287678/full |
| _version_ | 1797427172241047552 |
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| author | Qu Cheng Qinlong Jing Philip A. Collender Jennifer R. Head Qi Li Hailan Yu Zhichao Li Yang Ju Tianmu Chen Peng Wang Eimear Cleary Shengjie Lai |
| author_facet | Qu Cheng Qinlong Jing Philip A. Collender Jennifer R. Head Qi Li Hailan Yu Zhichao Li Yang Ju Tianmu Chen Peng Wang Eimear Cleary Shengjie Lai |
| author_sort | Qu Cheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | IntroductionGiven the rapid geographic spread of dengue and the growing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, it is imperative to understand the relationship between these phenomena in order to propose effective interventions. However, studies exploring the association between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk have reached conflicting conclusions, potentially due to the neglect of prior water availability in mosquito breeding sites as an effect modifier.MethodsIn this study, we addressed this research gap by considering the impact of prior water availability for the first time. We measured prior water availability as the cumulative precipitation over the preceding 8 weeks and utilized a distributed lag non-linear model stratified by the level of prior water availability to examine the association between dengue infection risk and heavy rainfall in Guangzhou, a dengue transmission hotspot in southern China.ResultsOur findings suggest that the effects of heavy rainfall are likely to be modified by prior water availability. A 24–55 day lagged impact of heavy rainfall was associated with an increase in dengue risk when prior water availability was low, with the greatest incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.37 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.02–1.83] occurring at a lag of 27 days. In contrast, a heavy rainfall lag of 7–121 days decreased dengue risk when prior water availability was high, with the lowest IRR of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.43–0.79), occurring at a lag of 45 days.DiscussionThese findings may help to reconcile the inconsistent conclusions reached by previous studies and improve our understanding of the complex relationship between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T08:40:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dd1add84b89f48528b76a1aa95a9b649 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T08:40:21Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-dd1add84b89f48528b76a1aa95a9b6492023-12-02T17:04:03ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652023-12-011110.3389/fpubh.2023.12876781287678Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern ChinaQu Cheng0Qinlong Jing1Philip A. Collender2Jennifer R. Head3Qi Li4Hailan Yu5Zhichao Li6Yang Ju7Tianmu Chen8Peng Wang9Eimear Cleary10Shengjie Lai11Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, , University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United StatesDivision of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United StatesDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaWorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United KingdomWorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United KingdomIntroductionGiven the rapid geographic spread of dengue and the growing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, it is imperative to understand the relationship between these phenomena in order to propose effective interventions. However, studies exploring the association between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk have reached conflicting conclusions, potentially due to the neglect of prior water availability in mosquito breeding sites as an effect modifier.MethodsIn this study, we addressed this research gap by considering the impact of prior water availability for the first time. We measured prior water availability as the cumulative precipitation over the preceding 8 weeks and utilized a distributed lag non-linear model stratified by the level of prior water availability to examine the association between dengue infection risk and heavy rainfall in Guangzhou, a dengue transmission hotspot in southern China.ResultsOur findings suggest that the effects of heavy rainfall are likely to be modified by prior water availability. A 24–55 day lagged impact of heavy rainfall was associated with an increase in dengue risk when prior water availability was low, with the greatest incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.37 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.02–1.83] occurring at a lag of 27 days. In contrast, a heavy rainfall lag of 7–121 days decreased dengue risk when prior water availability was high, with the lowest IRR of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.43–0.79), occurring at a lag of 45 days.DiscussionThese findings may help to reconcile the inconsistent conclusions reached by previous studies and improve our understanding of the complex relationship between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1287678/fulldengueheavy rainfall eventsprior water availabilityDLNMGuangzhou |
| spellingShingle | Qu Cheng Qinlong Jing Philip A. Collender Jennifer R. Head Qi Li Hailan Yu Zhichao Li Yang Ju Tianmu Chen Peng Wang Eimear Cleary Shengjie Lai Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China Frontiers in Public Health dengue heavy rainfall events prior water availability DLNM Guangzhou |
| title | Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China |
| title_full | Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China |
| title_fullStr | Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China |
| title_short | Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China |
| title_sort | prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern china |
| topic | dengue heavy rainfall events prior water availability DLNM Guangzhou |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1287678/full |
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