Carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projects
In order to carry out the research on the measurement and prediction of carbon emissions from highway projects, the prediction index system is constructed by selecting seven influencing factors, namely, urbanization rate, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure, key low-carbon techn...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-01-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1302220/full |
| _version_ | 1797366621958832128 |
|---|---|
| author | Qixian Wu Yun Chen Congying Li Xiaoya Shi |
| author_facet | Qixian Wu Yun Chen Congying Li Xiaoya Shi |
| author_sort | Qixian Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In order to carry out the research on the measurement and prediction of carbon emissions from highway projects, the prediction index system is constructed by selecting seven influencing factors, namely, urbanization rate, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure, key low-carbon technologies, highway construction planning, and green financial support. The carbon emission coefficient method is used to measure the carbon emissions of highway projects from the perspective of energy consumption, and finally, a carbon emission scenario prediction model based on the scenario analysis method and the LSTM algorithm of the recurrent neural network is constructed to put forward a new way of predicting the carbon emissions of highway projects. Taking Hunan province as a case study object, the carbon emission trends in the next 15 years are predicted under three scenarios: low carbon, baseline, and high carbon. The results show that the highway project in Hunan province is expected to peak in 2031 under the low-carbon scenario, in 2037 under the baseline scenario, and around 2044 under the high-carbon scenario. It is also found that energy saving and emission reduction measures have a certain lag in the emission reduction effect of highway projects. Finally, based on this, suggestions and countermeasures for carbon emission reduction of highway development in Hunan province are proposed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:06:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dd37b0bd6a4c47bc99a8fcd8d25869e4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-665X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:06:20Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-dd37b0bd6a4c47bc99a8fcd8d25869e42024-01-04T04:54:41ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2024-01-011110.3389/fenvs.2023.13022201302220Carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projectsQixian Wu0Yun Chen1Congying Li2Xiaoya Shi3Country Management College, Wuzhou University, Wuzhou, ChinaTraffic and Transportation Engineering College, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, ChinaTraffic and Transportation Engineering College, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, ChinaTraffic and Transportation Engineering College, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, ChinaIn order to carry out the research on the measurement and prediction of carbon emissions from highway projects, the prediction index system is constructed by selecting seven influencing factors, namely, urbanization rate, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure, key low-carbon technologies, highway construction planning, and green financial support. The carbon emission coefficient method is used to measure the carbon emissions of highway projects from the perspective of energy consumption, and finally, a carbon emission scenario prediction model based on the scenario analysis method and the LSTM algorithm of the recurrent neural network is constructed to put forward a new way of predicting the carbon emissions of highway projects. Taking Hunan province as a case study object, the carbon emission trends in the next 15 years are predicted under three scenarios: low carbon, baseline, and high carbon. The results show that the highway project in Hunan province is expected to peak in 2031 under the low-carbon scenario, in 2037 under the baseline scenario, and around 2044 under the high-carbon scenario. It is also found that energy saving and emission reduction measures have a certain lag in the emission reduction effect of highway projects. Finally, based on this, suggestions and countermeasures for carbon emission reduction of highway development in Hunan province are proposed.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1302220/fullhighway construction projectcarbon emissionscenario predictionLSTM modelHunan province |
| spellingShingle | Qixian Wu Yun Chen Congying Li Xiaoya Shi Carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projects Frontiers in Environmental Science highway construction project carbon emission scenario prediction LSTM model Hunan province |
| title | Carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projects |
| title_full | Carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projects |
| title_fullStr | Carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projects |
| title_full_unstemmed | Carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projects |
| title_short | Carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projects |
| title_sort | carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projects |
| topic | highway construction project carbon emission scenario prediction LSTM model Hunan province |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1302220/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT qixianwu carbonemissionscenariopredictionforhighwayconstructionprojects AT yunchen carbonemissionscenariopredictionforhighwayconstructionprojects AT congyingli carbonemissionscenariopredictionforhighwayconstructionprojects AT xiaoyashi carbonemissionscenariopredictionforhighwayconstructionprojects |