Projection of future climate change in the Poyang Lake Basin of China under the global warming of 1.5–3°C
This study projected the future climate changes in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) of China under various global warming targets (1.5–3°C), based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and 4 statistical downscaling methods, including Quantile Mapping (QM), Daily Translation...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.985145/full |
| _version_ | 1797995336132722688 |
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| author | Meng Zhang Meng Zhang Wanling Xu Wanling Xu Zengyun Hu Christoph Merz Miaomiao Ma Jianhui Wei Xiaojun Guan Lizhi Jiang Ruijuan Bao Yingying Wei Lu Gao Lu Gao Lu Gao Lu Gao |
| author_facet | Meng Zhang Meng Zhang Wanling Xu Wanling Xu Zengyun Hu Christoph Merz Miaomiao Ma Jianhui Wei Xiaojun Guan Lizhi Jiang Ruijuan Bao Yingying Wei Lu Gao Lu Gao Lu Gao Lu Gao |
| author_sort | Meng Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study projected the future climate changes in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) of China under various global warming targets (1.5–3°C), based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and 4 statistical downscaling methods, including Quantile Mapping (QM), Daily Translation (DT), Delta, and Local Intensity Scaling (LOCI). The RMSE, R2 and KGE indicators were used to evaluate the competency of the aforementioned methods applied to daily precipitation (Pre), daily mean temperature (Tas), daily maximum temperature (Tasmax), and daily minimum temperature (Tasmin). The global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3°C will occur around 2040, from 2045 to 2080 and around 2075, respectively, for the emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The results demonstrated that under the 1.5, 2 and 3°C global warming targets, the projected annual precipitation declined by 14.82, 11.92 and 8.91% relative to the reference period (1986–2005), respectively. The Tas increased significantly by 0.43, 0.94 and 1.92°C and the Tasmax increased by 0.58, 1.11 and 2.09°C. The Tasmin decreased by 0.29°C under the 1.5°C warming target, while it increased by 0.19 and 1.18°C under the 2 and 3°C warming targets. The spatial distributions of future annual precipitation in the PLB were relative consistent. However, the regional variability was significant, which the southern and eastern regions experienced more precipitation than the northern and western regions. The south-central part of the Ganjiang basin was the high-value area while the northeastern part was the low-value area. The Tas, Tasmax and Tasmin had a consistent spatial variation characteristic that the high latitude areas were warmer than the low latitude areas, and the western regions were warmer than the central and eastern regions while the northeastern regions were cooler than the remaining regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T10:00:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dd3d27b193d7439ab1cce622cc70a797 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-665X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T10:00:01Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-dd3d27b193d7439ab1cce622cc70a7972022-12-22T04:30:27ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2022-09-011010.3389/fenvs.2022.985145985145Projection of future climate change in the Poyang Lake Basin of China under the global warming of 1.5–3°CMeng Zhang0Meng Zhang1Wanling Xu2Wanling Xu3Zengyun Hu4Christoph Merz5Miaomiao Ma6Jianhui Wei7Xiaojun Guan8Lizhi Jiang9Ruijuan Bao10Yingying Wei11Lu Gao12Lu Gao13Lu Gao14Lu Gao15Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, ChinaCollege of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, ChinaInstitute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, ChinaCollege of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, ChinaLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, GermanyChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, ChinaInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyFujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fuzhou, ChinaFujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fuzhou, ChinaFujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fuzhou, ChinaCollege of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, ChinaInstitute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, ChinaCollege of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, ChinaFujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Accessing Terrestrial Disasters, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, ChinaKey Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, ChinaThis study projected the future climate changes in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) of China under various global warming targets (1.5–3°C), based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and 4 statistical downscaling methods, including Quantile Mapping (QM), Daily Translation (DT), Delta, and Local Intensity Scaling (LOCI). The RMSE, R2 and KGE indicators were used to evaluate the competency of the aforementioned methods applied to daily precipitation (Pre), daily mean temperature (Tas), daily maximum temperature (Tasmax), and daily minimum temperature (Tasmin). The global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3°C will occur around 2040, from 2045 to 2080 and around 2075, respectively, for the emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The results demonstrated that under the 1.5, 2 and 3°C global warming targets, the projected annual precipitation declined by 14.82, 11.92 and 8.91% relative to the reference period (1986–2005), respectively. The Tas increased significantly by 0.43, 0.94 and 1.92°C and the Tasmax increased by 0.58, 1.11 and 2.09°C. The Tasmin decreased by 0.29°C under the 1.5°C warming target, while it increased by 0.19 and 1.18°C under the 2 and 3°C warming targets. The spatial distributions of future annual precipitation in the PLB were relative consistent. However, the regional variability was significant, which the southern and eastern regions experienced more precipitation than the northern and western regions. The south-central part of the Ganjiang basin was the high-value area while the northeastern part was the low-value area. The Tas, Tasmax and Tasmin had a consistent spatial variation characteristic that the high latitude areas were warmer than the low latitude areas, and the western regions were warmer than the central and eastern regions while the northeastern regions were cooler than the remaining regions.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.985145/fullPoyang Lake Basin of ChinaCMIP6statistical downscalingglobal warmingclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Meng Zhang Meng Zhang Wanling Xu Wanling Xu Zengyun Hu Christoph Merz Miaomiao Ma Jianhui Wei Xiaojun Guan Lizhi Jiang Ruijuan Bao Yingying Wei Lu Gao Lu Gao Lu Gao Lu Gao Projection of future climate change in the Poyang Lake Basin of China under the global warming of 1.5–3°C Frontiers in Environmental Science Poyang Lake Basin of China CMIP6 statistical downscaling global warming climate change |
| title | Projection of future climate change in the Poyang Lake Basin of China under the global warming of 1.5–3°C |
| title_full | Projection of future climate change in the Poyang Lake Basin of China under the global warming of 1.5–3°C |
| title_fullStr | Projection of future climate change in the Poyang Lake Basin of China under the global warming of 1.5–3°C |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projection of future climate change in the Poyang Lake Basin of China under the global warming of 1.5–3°C |
| title_short | Projection of future climate change in the Poyang Lake Basin of China under the global warming of 1.5–3°C |
| title_sort | projection of future climate change in the poyang lake basin of china under the global warming of 1 5 3°c |
| topic | Poyang Lake Basin of China CMIP6 statistical downscaling global warming climate change |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.985145/full |
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