Evaluation of Present-Day CMIP6 Model Simulations of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the Australian Continent
Australia experiences a variety of climate extremes that result in loss of life and economic and environmental damage. This paper provides a first evaluation of the performance of state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs) in simulating climat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2022-09-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/9/1478 |
| _version_ | 1797491304042594304 |
|---|---|
| author | Nidhi Nishant Giovanni Di Virgilio Fei Ji Eugene Tam Kathleen Beyer Matthew L. Riley |
| author_facet | Nidhi Nishant Giovanni Di Virgilio Fei Ji Eugene Tam Kathleen Beyer Matthew L. Riley |
| author_sort | Nidhi Nishant |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Australia experiences a variety of climate extremes that result in loss of life and economic and environmental damage. This paper provides a first evaluation of the performance of state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs) in simulating climate extremes over Australia. Here, we evaluate how well 37 individual CMIP6 GCMs simulate the spatiotemporal patterns of 12 climate extremes over Australia by comparing the GCMs against gridded observations (Australian Gridded Climate Dataset). This evaluation is crucial for informing, interpreting, and constructing multimodel ensemble future projections of climate extremes over Australia, climate-resilience planning, and GCM selection while conducting exercises like dynamical downscaling via GCMs. We find that temperature extremes (maximum-maximum temperature -TXx, number of summer days -SU, and number of days when maximum temperature is greater than 35 °C -Txge35) are reasonably well-simulated in comparison to precipitation extremes. However, GCMs tend to overestimate (underestimate) minimum (maximum) temperature extremes. GCMs also typically struggle to capture both extremely dry (consecutive dry days -CDD) and wet (99th percentile of precipitation -R99p) precipitation extremes, thus highlighting the underlying uncertainty of GCMs in capturing regional drought and flood conditions. Typically for both precipitation and temperature extremes, UKESM1-0-LL, FGOALS-g3, and GCMs from Met office Hadley Centre (HadGEM3-GC31-MM and HadGEM3-GC31-LL) and NOAA (GFDL-ESM4 and GFDL-CM4) consistently tend to show good performance. Our results also show that GCMs from the same modelling group and GCMs sharing key modelling components tend to have similar biases and thus are not highly independent. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:45:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dd9044f18bc941b984ba6fd0f219372e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:45:34Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-dd9044f18bc941b984ba6fd0f219372e2023-11-23T15:00:17ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-09-01139147810.3390/atmos13091478Evaluation of Present-Day CMIP6 Model Simulations of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the Australian ContinentNidhi Nishant0Giovanni Di Virgilio1Fei Ji2Eugene Tam3Kathleen Beyer4Matthew L. Riley5Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, AustraliaClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, AustraliaAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, AustraliaScience, Economics and Insights Division, NSW Department of Planning and Environment, Sydney, NSW 2141, AustraliaScience, Economics and Insights Division, NSW Department of Planning and Environment, Sydney, NSW 2141, AustraliaScience, Economics and Insights Division, NSW Department of Planning and Environment, Sydney, NSW 2141, AustraliaAustralia experiences a variety of climate extremes that result in loss of life and economic and environmental damage. This paper provides a first evaluation of the performance of state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs) in simulating climate extremes over Australia. Here, we evaluate how well 37 individual CMIP6 GCMs simulate the spatiotemporal patterns of 12 climate extremes over Australia by comparing the GCMs against gridded observations (Australian Gridded Climate Dataset). This evaluation is crucial for informing, interpreting, and constructing multimodel ensemble future projections of climate extremes over Australia, climate-resilience planning, and GCM selection while conducting exercises like dynamical downscaling via GCMs. We find that temperature extremes (maximum-maximum temperature -TXx, number of summer days -SU, and number of days when maximum temperature is greater than 35 °C -Txge35) are reasonably well-simulated in comparison to precipitation extremes. However, GCMs tend to overestimate (underestimate) minimum (maximum) temperature extremes. GCMs also typically struggle to capture both extremely dry (consecutive dry days -CDD) and wet (99th percentile of precipitation -R99p) precipitation extremes, thus highlighting the underlying uncertainty of GCMs in capturing regional drought and flood conditions. Typically for both precipitation and temperature extremes, UKESM1-0-LL, FGOALS-g3, and GCMs from Met office Hadley Centre (HadGEM3-GC31-MM and HadGEM3-GC31-LL) and NOAA (GFDL-ESM4 and GFDL-CM4) consistently tend to show good performance. Our results also show that GCMs from the same modelling group and GCMs sharing key modelling components tend to have similar biases and thus are not highly independent.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/9/1478climate change adaptationclimate extremesCMIP6ET-SCI indicesextreme weatherregional climate modelling |
| spellingShingle | Nidhi Nishant Giovanni Di Virgilio Fei Ji Eugene Tam Kathleen Beyer Matthew L. Riley Evaluation of Present-Day CMIP6 Model Simulations of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the Australian Continent Atmosphere climate change adaptation climate extremes CMIP6 ET-SCI indices extreme weather regional climate modelling |
| title | Evaluation of Present-Day CMIP6 Model Simulations of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the Australian Continent |
| title_full | Evaluation of Present-Day CMIP6 Model Simulations of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the Australian Continent |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Present-Day CMIP6 Model Simulations of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the Australian Continent |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Present-Day CMIP6 Model Simulations of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the Australian Continent |
| title_short | Evaluation of Present-Day CMIP6 Model Simulations of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the Australian Continent |
| title_sort | evaluation of present day cmip6 model simulations of extreme precipitation and temperature over the australian continent |
| topic | climate change adaptation climate extremes CMIP6 ET-SCI indices extreme weather regional climate modelling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/9/1478 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nidhinishant evaluationofpresentdaycmip6modelsimulationsofextremeprecipitationandtemperatureovertheaustraliancontinent AT giovannidivirgilio evaluationofpresentdaycmip6modelsimulationsofextremeprecipitationandtemperatureovertheaustraliancontinent AT feiji evaluationofpresentdaycmip6modelsimulationsofextremeprecipitationandtemperatureovertheaustraliancontinent AT eugenetam evaluationofpresentdaycmip6modelsimulationsofextremeprecipitationandtemperatureovertheaustraliancontinent AT kathleenbeyer evaluationofpresentdaycmip6modelsimulationsofextremeprecipitationandtemperatureovertheaustraliancontinent AT matthewlriley evaluationofpresentdaycmip6modelsimulationsofextremeprecipitationandtemperatureovertheaustraliancontinent |