A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change
Climate change may affect crop growth and yield, which consequently casts a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency efforts. In this study, we used the projections derived from four global gridded crop models (GGCropMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the yields of...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015-02-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/6/45/2015/esd-6-45-2015.pdf |
| _version_ | 1828169105212964864 |
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| author | Y. Yin Q. Tang X. Liu |
| author_facet | Y. Yin Q. Tang X. Liu |
| author_sort | Y. Yin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change may affect crop growth and yield, which
consequently casts a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency
efforts. In this study, we used the projections derived from four global
gridded crop models (GGCropMs) to assess the effects of future climate
change on the yields of the major crops (i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat)
in China. The GGCropMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate
data from five global climate models (GCMs) under Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, which were made available through the
Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results
show that the potential yields of the crops would decrease in the 21st
century without carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) fertilization effect. With the
CO<sub>2</sub> effect, the potential yields of rice and soybean would increase,
while the potential yields of maize and wheat would decrease. The
uncertainty in yields resulting from the GGCropMs is larger than the
uncertainty derived from GCMs in the greater part of China. Climate change may
benefit rice and soybean yields in high-altitude and cold regions which are
not in the current main agricultural area. However, the potential yields of
maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in the major food production area.
Development of new agronomic management strategies may be useful for coping
with climate change in the areas with a high risk of yield reduction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T02:45:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ddebf60cacec4e0db71bcbb6629cd69b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T02:45:42Z |
| publishDate | 2015-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-ddebf60cacec4e0db71bcbb6629cd69b2022-12-22T03:51:11ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872015-02-0161455910.5194/esd-6-45-2015A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate changeY. Yin0Q. Tang1X. Liu2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaClimate change may affect crop growth and yield, which consequently casts a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency efforts. In this study, we used the projections derived from four global gridded crop models (GGCropMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the yields of the major crops (i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat) in China. The GGCropMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate data from five global climate models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, which were made available through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results show that the potential yields of the crops would decrease in the 21st century without carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) fertilization effect. With the CO<sub>2</sub> effect, the potential yields of rice and soybean would increase, while the potential yields of maize and wheat would decrease. The uncertainty in yields resulting from the GGCropMs is larger than the uncertainty derived from GCMs in the greater part of China. Climate change may benefit rice and soybean yields in high-altitude and cold regions which are not in the current main agricultural area. However, the potential yields of maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in the major food production area. Development of new agronomic management strategies may be useful for coping with climate change in the areas with a high risk of yield reduction.http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/6/45/2015/esd-6-45-2015.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Y. Yin Q. Tang X. Liu A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change Earth System Dynamics |
| title | A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change |
| title_full | A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change |
| title_fullStr | A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change |
| title_short | A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change |
| title_sort | multi model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in china under climate change |
| url | http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/6/45/2015/esd-6-45-2015.pdf |
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