Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia
Abstract Background This paper studies the effect of mosquito abundance and malaria incidence in the last 3 weeks, and their interaction, on the hazard of time to malaria in a previously studied cohort of children in Ethiopia. Methods We model the mosquito abundance and time to malaria data jointly...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2017-06-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-017-2496-4 |
| _version_ | 1818552710372261888 |
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| author | Denekew Bitew Belay Yehenew Getachew Kifle Ayele Taye Goshu Jon Michael Gran Delenasaw Yewhalaw Luc Duchateau Arnoldo Frigessi |
| author_facet | Denekew Bitew Belay Yehenew Getachew Kifle Ayele Taye Goshu Jon Michael Gran Delenasaw Yewhalaw Luc Duchateau Arnoldo Frigessi |
| author_sort | Denekew Bitew Belay |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background This paper studies the effect of mosquito abundance and malaria incidence in the last 3 weeks, and their interaction, on the hazard of time to malaria in a previously studied cohort of children in Ethiopia. Methods We model the mosquito abundance and time to malaria data jointly in a Bayesian framework. Results We found that the interaction of mosquito abundance and incidence plays a prominent role on malaria risk. We quantify and compare relative risks of various factors, and determine the predominant role of the interaction between incidence and mosquito abundance in describing malaria risk. Seasonal rain patterns, distance to a water source of the households, temperature and relative humidity are all significant in explaining mosquito abundance, and through this affect malaria risk. Conclusion Analyzing jointly the time to malaria data and the mosquito abundance allows a precise comparison of factors affecting the spread of malaria. The effect of the interaction between mosquito abundances and local presence of malaria parasites has an important effect on the hazard of time to malaria, beyond abundance alone. Each additional one km away from the dam gives an average reduction of malaria relative risk of 5.7%. The importance of the interaction between abundance and incidence leads to the hypothesis that preventive intervention could advantageously target the infectious population, in addition to mosquito control, which is the typical intervention today. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T09:16:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-de0f5231419b4e6496d1bd2728ca9565 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T09:16:43Z |
| publishDate | 2017-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-de0f5231419b4e6496d1bd2728ca95652022-12-22T00:29:21ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342017-06-0117111210.1186/s12879-017-2496-4Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in EthiopiaDenekew Bitew Belay0Yehenew Getachew Kifle1Ayele Taye Goshu2Jon Michael Gran3Delenasaw Yewhalaw4Luc Duchateau5Arnoldo Frigessi6School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, College of Natural and Computational Science, Hawassa UniversityDepartment of Statistics and Operations Research, University of LimpopoSchool of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, College of Natural and Computational Science, Hawassa UniversityOslo Center for Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Oslo and Oslo University HospitalDepartment of Medical Laboratory Sciences and Pathology, College of Health Sciences, Jimma UniversityDepartment of Comparative Physiology and Biometrics, Ghent UniversityOslo Center for Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Oslo and Oslo University HospitalAbstract Background This paper studies the effect of mosquito abundance and malaria incidence in the last 3 weeks, and their interaction, on the hazard of time to malaria in a previously studied cohort of children in Ethiopia. Methods We model the mosquito abundance and time to malaria data jointly in a Bayesian framework. Results We found that the interaction of mosquito abundance and incidence plays a prominent role on malaria risk. We quantify and compare relative risks of various factors, and determine the predominant role of the interaction between incidence and mosquito abundance in describing malaria risk. Seasonal rain patterns, distance to a water source of the households, temperature and relative humidity are all significant in explaining mosquito abundance, and through this affect malaria risk. Conclusion Analyzing jointly the time to malaria data and the mosquito abundance allows a precise comparison of factors affecting the spread of malaria. The effect of the interaction between mosquito abundances and local presence of malaria parasites has an important effect on the hazard of time to malaria, beyond abundance alone. Each additional one km away from the dam gives an average reduction of malaria relative risk of 5.7%. The importance of the interaction between abundance and incidence leads to the hypothesis that preventive intervention could advantageously target the infectious population, in addition to mosquito control, which is the typical intervention today.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-017-2496-4Mosquito abundanceTime to malariaMCMCAbundance and incidence interactionBayesian inference |
| spellingShingle | Denekew Bitew Belay Yehenew Getachew Kifle Ayele Taye Goshu Jon Michael Gran Delenasaw Yewhalaw Luc Duchateau Arnoldo Frigessi Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia BMC Infectious Diseases Mosquito abundance Time to malaria MCMC Abundance and incidence interaction Bayesian inference |
| title | Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia |
| title_full | Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia |
| title_short | Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia |
| title_sort | joint bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in ethiopia |
| topic | Mosquito abundance Time to malaria MCMC Abundance and incidence interaction Bayesian inference |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-017-2496-4 |
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