COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented decline in global air transport and associated reduction in CO _2 emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) reacted by weakening its own CO _2 -offsetting rules. Here we investigate whether the pandemic can be an opportunity to...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe90b |
| _version_ | 1797747757079855104 |
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| author | Stefan Gössling Andreas Humpe Frank Fichert Felix Creutzig |
| author_facet | Stefan Gössling Andreas Humpe Frank Fichert Felix Creutzig |
| author_sort | Stefan Gössling |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented decline in global air transport and associated reduction in CO _2 emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) reacted by weakening its own CO _2 -offsetting rules. Here we investigate whether the pandemic can be an opportunity to bring the sector on a reliable low-carbon trajectory, with a starting point in the observed reduction in air transport demand. We model a COVID-19 recovery based on a feed-in quota for non-biogenic synthetic fuels that will decarbonize fuels by 2050, as well as a carbon price to account for negative externalities and as an incentive to increase fuel efficiency. Results suggest that until 2050, air transport demand will continue to grow, albeit slower than in ICAO’s recovery scenarios, exceeding 2018 demand by 3.7–10.3 trillion RPK. Results show that synthetic fuels, produced by 14–20 EJ of photovoltaic energy, would make it possible to completely phase out fossil fuels and to avoid emissions of up to 26.5 Gt CO _2 over the period 2022–2050. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-de4b1e877eb04e06a4ca3281d829ed2d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:12Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-de4b1e877eb04e06a4ca3281d829ed2d2023-08-09T14:57:15ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116303406310.1088/1748-9326/abe90bCOVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050Stefan Gössling0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0505-9207Andreas Humpe1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8663-3201Frank Fichert2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6121-2064Felix Creutzig3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5710-3348School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University , 391 82 Kalmar, SwedenMunich University of Applied Sciences , Schachenmeierstraße 35, 80636 München, GermanyWorms University of Applied Sciences , Erenburger Str. 19, 67549 Worms, GermanyMercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change , Torgauer Straße 12-15, EUREF 19, 10829 Berlin, GermanyThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented decline in global air transport and associated reduction in CO _2 emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) reacted by weakening its own CO _2 -offsetting rules. Here we investigate whether the pandemic can be an opportunity to bring the sector on a reliable low-carbon trajectory, with a starting point in the observed reduction in air transport demand. We model a COVID-19 recovery based on a feed-in quota for non-biogenic synthetic fuels that will decarbonize fuels by 2050, as well as a carbon price to account for negative externalities and as an incentive to increase fuel efficiency. Results suggest that until 2050, air transport demand will continue to grow, albeit slower than in ICAO’s recovery scenarios, exceeding 2018 demand by 3.7–10.3 trillion RPK. Results show that synthetic fuels, produced by 14–20 EJ of photovoltaic energy, would make it possible to completely phase out fossil fuels and to avoid emissions of up to 26.5 Gt CO _2 over the period 2022–2050.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe90baviationclimate policyCOVID-19CORSIAsynthetic fuels |
| spellingShingle | Stefan Gössling Andreas Humpe Frank Fichert Felix Creutzig COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050 Environmental Research Letters aviation climate policy COVID-19 CORSIA synthetic fuels |
| title | COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050 |
| title_full | COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050 |
| title_fullStr | COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050 |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050 |
| title_short | COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050 |
| title_sort | covid 19 and pathways to low carbon air transport until 2050 |
| topic | aviation climate policy COVID-19 CORSIA synthetic fuels |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe90b |
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