Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations
Climate change (CC) is a global threat to the agricultural system. Changing climatic conditions are causing variations in temperature range, rainfall timing, humidity percentage, soil structure, and composition of gases in environment. All these factors have a great influence on the phenological eve...
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MDPI AG
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Plants |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/11/9/1180 |
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| author | Muhammad Ishtiaq Mehwish Maqbool Mahnoor Muzamil Ryan Casini Abed Alataway Ahmed Z. Dewidar Ahmed M. El-Sabrout Hosam O. Elansary |
| author_facet | Muhammad Ishtiaq Mehwish Maqbool Mahnoor Muzamil Ryan Casini Abed Alataway Ahmed Z. Dewidar Ahmed M. El-Sabrout Hosam O. Elansary |
| author_sort | Muhammad Ishtiaq |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change (CC) is a global threat to the agricultural system. Changing climatic conditions are causing variations in temperature range, rainfall timing, humidity percentage, soil structure, and composition of gases in environment. All these factors have a great influence on the phenological events in plants’ life cycle. Alternation in phenological events, especially in crops, leads to either lower yield or crop failure. In light of respective statement, the present study is designed to evaluate the climatic impacts on two heat-resistant wheat varieties (Sialkot–2008 and Punjab–2018). During the study, impacts of CC on wheat phenology and annual yield were predicted considering six climatic factors: maximum temp, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil moisture content, and solar radiation using two quantitative approaches. First, a two-year field experimental plot was set up at five different sites of study—each plot a bisect of two sites. Phenological changes of both varieties were monitored with respect to climatic factors and changes were recorded in a scientific manner. Secondly, experimental results were compared with Global climate models (GMC) models with a baseline range of the past 40 years (1970–2010) and future fifty years (2019–2068) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 model analysis. Field experiment showed a (0.02) difference in maximum temperature, (0.04) in minimum temperature, (0.17) in humidity, and about (0.03) significant difference in soil moisture content during 2019–2021. Under these changing climatic parameters, a 0.21% difference was accounted in annual yield. Furthermore, the results were supported by GMC model analysis, which was analyzed by Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Results depicted that non-heat-resistant wheat varieties could cause up to a 6~13% reduction in yield during future 50 years (2019–2068)) compared with the last 40 years (1970–2010). A larger decline in wheat grain number relative to grain weight is a key reducer of wheat yield, under future climate change circumstances. Using heat-tolerant wheat varieties will not only assist to overcome this plethora but also provide a potential increase of up to 7% to 10% in indigenous environment. On the other hand, it was concluded that cultivating these heat-resistant varieties that are also ripening late culminates into enhanced thermal time chucks during the grain-filling period; hence, wheat yield will increase by 8% to 12%. In changing climatic conditions and varieties, ‘Punjab–2018′ will be the better choice for peasants and farm-land owners to obtain a better yield of wheat to cope with the necessities of food on the domestic and national level. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:49:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-de8634b1839c4d96b36529cf8acc6409 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2223-7747 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:49:13Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
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| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj.art-de8634b1839c4d96b36529cf8acc64092023-11-23T09:02:38ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472022-04-01119118010.3390/plants11091180Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future AdaptationsMuhammad Ishtiaq0Mehwish Maqbool1Mahnoor Muzamil2Ryan Casini3Abed Alataway4Ahmed Z. Dewidar5Ahmed M. El-Sabrout6Hosam O. Elansary7Department of Botany, Mirpur University of Science and Technology, Mirpur-10250 (AJK), PakistanDepartment of Botany, Mirpur University of Science and Technology, Mirpur-10250 (AJK), PakistanDepartment of Botany, Mirpur University of Science and Technology, Mirpur-10250 (AJK), PakistanSchool of Public Health, University of California, 2121 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, CA 94704, USAPrince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Prize for Water Chair, Prince Sultan Institute for Environmental, Water and Desert Research, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi ArabiaPrince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Prize for Water Chair, Prince Sultan Institute for Environmental, Water and Desert Research, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Applied Entomology and Zoology, Faculty of Agriculture (EL-Shatby), Alexandria University, Alexandria 21545, EgyptPlant Production Department, College of Food and Agriculture Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi ArabiaClimate change (CC) is a global threat to the agricultural system. Changing climatic conditions are causing variations in temperature range, rainfall timing, humidity percentage, soil structure, and composition of gases in environment. All these factors have a great influence on the phenological events in plants’ life cycle. Alternation in phenological events, especially in crops, leads to either lower yield or crop failure. In light of respective statement, the present study is designed to evaluate the climatic impacts on two heat-resistant wheat varieties (Sialkot–2008 and Punjab–2018). During the study, impacts of CC on wheat phenology and annual yield were predicted considering six climatic factors: maximum temp, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil moisture content, and solar radiation using two quantitative approaches. First, a two-year field experimental plot was set up at five different sites of study—each plot a bisect of two sites. Phenological changes of both varieties were monitored with respect to climatic factors and changes were recorded in a scientific manner. Secondly, experimental results were compared with Global climate models (GMC) models with a baseline range of the past 40 years (1970–2010) and future fifty years (2019–2068) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 model analysis. Field experiment showed a (0.02) difference in maximum temperature, (0.04) in minimum temperature, (0.17) in humidity, and about (0.03) significant difference in soil moisture content during 2019–2021. Under these changing climatic parameters, a 0.21% difference was accounted in annual yield. Furthermore, the results were supported by GMC model analysis, which was analyzed by Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Results depicted that non-heat-resistant wheat varieties could cause up to a 6~13% reduction in yield during future 50 years (2019–2068)) compared with the last 40 years (1970–2010). A larger decline in wheat grain number relative to grain weight is a key reducer of wheat yield, under future climate change circumstances. Using heat-tolerant wheat varieties will not only assist to overcome this plethora but also provide a potential increase of up to 7% to 10% in indigenous environment. On the other hand, it was concluded that cultivating these heat-resistant varieties that are also ripening late culminates into enhanced thermal time chucks during the grain-filling period; hence, wheat yield will increase by 8% to 12%. In changing climatic conditions and varieties, ‘Punjab–2018′ will be the better choice for peasants and farm-land owners to obtain a better yield of wheat to cope with the necessities of food on the domestic and national level.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/11/9/1180climate changephenology changesheat-resistant varietieswith Global climate models (GCM)Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)late mature variety |
| spellingShingle | Muhammad Ishtiaq Mehwish Maqbool Mahnoor Muzamil Ryan Casini Abed Alataway Ahmed Z. Dewidar Ahmed M. El-Sabrout Hosam O. Elansary Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations Plants climate change phenology changes heat-resistant varieties with Global climate models (GCM) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) late mature variety |
| title | Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations |
| title_full | Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations |
| title_short | Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on phenology of two heat resistant wheat varieties and future adaptations |
| topic | climate change phenology changes heat-resistant varieties with Global climate models (GCM) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) late mature variety |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/11/9/1180 |
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