Transposing flood risk from extreme rainfall events: A case study of Hurricane Harvey
Abstract Hurricane Harvey produced unprecedented flooding that altered flood frequency statistics near Houston, Texas. While Harvey could have made landfall elsewhere along the Gulf coast, traditional flood frequency methodologies only consider the risk of Harvey in the region that it hit. This may...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12778 |
| _version_ | 1818476051123142656 |
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| author | Elizabeth Regier Joseph Naughton Walter McDonald |
| author_facet | Elizabeth Regier Joseph Naughton Walter McDonald |
| author_sort | Elizabeth Regier |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Hurricane Harvey produced unprecedented flooding that altered flood frequency statistics near Houston, Texas. While Harvey could have made landfall elsewhere along the Gulf coast, traditional flood frequency methodologies only consider the risk of Harvey in the region that it hit. This may be a shortcoming of flood frequency methodologies as the intensity of Harvey was greater due to climate change; therefore, Harvey may be more indicative of future hurricanes than other historical observations. To that end, this study investigates what effect Harvey would have had on flood frequency statistics if it had made landfall elsewhere. To do so, a Monte Carlo simulation was used to shift Harvey's rainfall within alternative landfall locations. This rainfall was then applied to synthetic unit hydrographs to estimate peak flows that were applied in Log Pearson III and Regional Flood Frequency Analyses. Log Pearson III analyses with simulated Harvey streamflows produced median 100‐year peak flows that were 17%–66% higher than analyses that only used historical records. A regional flood frequency analysis in the central coastal geomorphologic region of Texas showed that predictive equations, based upon basin area and shape factor, had an average increase of 30.2% in the 100‐year peak discharge. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T09:20:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-deb790e43a0244b0aacc634a6dadcb5c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1753-318X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T09:20:41Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-deb790e43a0244b0aacc634a6dadcb5c2022-12-22T01:54:42ZengWileyJournal of Flood Risk Management1753-318X2022-06-01152n/an/a10.1111/jfr3.12778Transposing flood risk from extreme rainfall events: A case study of Hurricane HarveyElizabeth Regier0Joseph Naughton1Walter McDonald2Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering Marquette University Milwaukee Wisconsin USADepartment of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering Marquette University Milwaukee Wisconsin USADepartment of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering Marquette University Milwaukee Wisconsin USAAbstract Hurricane Harvey produced unprecedented flooding that altered flood frequency statistics near Houston, Texas. While Harvey could have made landfall elsewhere along the Gulf coast, traditional flood frequency methodologies only consider the risk of Harvey in the region that it hit. This may be a shortcoming of flood frequency methodologies as the intensity of Harvey was greater due to climate change; therefore, Harvey may be more indicative of future hurricanes than other historical observations. To that end, this study investigates what effect Harvey would have had on flood frequency statistics if it had made landfall elsewhere. To do so, a Monte Carlo simulation was used to shift Harvey's rainfall within alternative landfall locations. This rainfall was then applied to synthetic unit hydrographs to estimate peak flows that were applied in Log Pearson III and Regional Flood Frequency Analyses. Log Pearson III analyses with simulated Harvey streamflows produced median 100‐year peak flows that were 17%–66% higher than analyses that only used historical records. A regional flood frequency analysis in the central coastal geomorphologic region of Texas showed that predictive equations, based upon basin area and shape factor, had an average increase of 30.2% in the 100‐year peak discharge.https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12778flood frequencyflood riskhurricanespeak flowsregional regressionreturn periods |
| spellingShingle | Elizabeth Regier Joseph Naughton Walter McDonald Transposing flood risk from extreme rainfall events: A case study of Hurricane Harvey Journal of Flood Risk Management flood frequency flood risk hurricanes peak flows regional regression return periods |
| title | Transposing flood risk from extreme rainfall events: A case study of Hurricane Harvey |
| title_full | Transposing flood risk from extreme rainfall events: A case study of Hurricane Harvey |
| title_fullStr | Transposing flood risk from extreme rainfall events: A case study of Hurricane Harvey |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transposing flood risk from extreme rainfall events: A case study of Hurricane Harvey |
| title_short | Transposing flood risk from extreme rainfall events: A case study of Hurricane Harvey |
| title_sort | transposing flood risk from extreme rainfall events a case study of hurricane harvey |
| topic | flood frequency flood risk hurricanes peak flows regional regression return periods |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12778 |
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