How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?
The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector s...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
2021-08-01
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| Series: | eLife |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://elifesciences.org/articles/69630 |
| _version_ | 1811235877051957248 |
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| author | Lisa I Couper Johannah E Farner Jamie M Caldwell Marissa L Childs Mallory J Harris Devin G Kirk Nicole Nova Marta Shocket Eloise B Skinner Lawrence H Uricchio Moises Exposito-Alonso Erin A Mordecai |
| author_facet | Lisa I Couper Johannah E Farner Jamie M Caldwell Marissa L Childs Mallory J Harris Devin G Kirk Nicole Nova Marta Shocket Eloise B Skinner Lawrence H Uricchio Moises Exposito-Alonso Erin A Mordecai |
| author_sort | Lisa I Couper |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology—evolutionary rescue models—can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:59:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-df0f977625864b08899dd83a3a3cc789 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2050-084X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:59:38Z |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | eLife Sciences Publications Ltd |
| record_format | Article |
| series | eLife |
| spelling | doaj.art-df0f977625864b08899dd83a3a3cc7892022-12-22T03:33:53ZengeLife Sciences Publications LtdeLife2050-084X2021-08-011010.7554/eLife.69630How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?Lisa I Couper0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7417-8675Johannah E Farner1Jamie M Caldwell2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6220-918XMarissa L Childs3Mallory J Harris4Devin G Kirk5Nicole Nova6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8585-1215Marta Shocket7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8995-4446Eloise B Skinner8Lawrence H Uricchio9https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9514-8945Moises Exposito-Alonso10https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5711-0700Erin A Mordecai11Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United StatesDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United StatesDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States; Department of Biology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United StatesEmmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, United StatesDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United StatesDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States; Department of Zoology, University of Toronto, Toronto, CanadaDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United StatesDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United StatesDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States; Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, AustraliaDepartment of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, United StatesDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States; Department of Plant Biology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, United StatesDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United StatesThe potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology—evolutionary rescue models—can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.https://elifesciences.org/articles/69630climate changeadaptationevolutionary rescuevectormosquitopest |
| spellingShingle | Lisa I Couper Johannah E Farner Jamie M Caldwell Marissa L Childs Mallory J Harris Devin G Kirk Nicole Nova Marta Shocket Eloise B Skinner Lawrence H Uricchio Moises Exposito-Alonso Erin A Mordecai How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming? eLife climate change adaptation evolutionary rescue vector mosquito pest |
| title | How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming? |
| title_full | How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming? |
| title_fullStr | How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming? |
| title_full_unstemmed | How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming? |
| title_short | How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming? |
| title_sort | how will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming |
| topic | climate change adaptation evolutionary rescue vector mosquito pest |
| url | https://elifesciences.org/articles/69630 |
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