The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet
<p>The Antarctic Ice Sheet will play a crucial role in the evolution of global mean sea level as the climate warms. An interactively coupled climate and ice sheet model is needed to understand the impacts of ice–climate feedbacks during this evolution. Here we use a two-way coupling between th...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2022-10-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4053/2022/tc-16-4053-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811344783293022208 |
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| author | A. Siahaan R. S. Smith P. R. Holland A. Jenkins A. Jenkins J. M. Gregory J. M. Gregory V. Lee P. Mathiot P. Mathiot A. J. . Payne J. K. . Ridley C. G. Jones |
| author_facet | A. Siahaan R. S. Smith P. R. Holland A. Jenkins A. Jenkins J. M. Gregory J. M. Gregory V. Lee P. Mathiot P. Mathiot A. J. . Payne J. K. . Ridley C. G. Jones |
| author_sort | A. Siahaan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The Antarctic Ice Sheet will play a crucial role in the evolution of global mean sea level as the climate warms. An interactively coupled climate
and ice sheet model is needed to understand the impacts of ice–climate feedbacks during this evolution. Here we use a two-way coupling between the
UK Earth System Model and the BISICLES (Berkeley Ice Sheet Initiative for Climate at Extreme Scales) dynamic ice sheet model to investigate Antarctic ice–climate interactions under two climate change
scenarios. We perform ensembles of SSP1–1.9 and SSP5–8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario simulations to 2100, which we believe are the first such simulations with a
climate model that include two-way coupling of atmosphere and ocean models to dynamic models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We focus our
analysis on the latter. In SSP1–1.9 simulations, ice shelf basal melting and grounded ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet are generally lower
than present rates during the entire simulation period. In contrast, the responses to SSP5–8.5 forcing are strong. By the end of the 21st century,
these simulations feature order-of-magnitude increases in basal melting of the Ross and Filchner–Ronne ice shelves, caused by intrusions of masses of warm
ocean water. Due to the slow response of ice sheet drawdown, this strong melting does not cause a substantial increase in ice discharge
during the simulations. The surface mass balance in SSP5–8.5 simulations shows a pattern of strong decrease on ice shelves, caused by increased
melting, and strong increase on grounded ice, caused by increased snowfall. Despite strong surface and basal melting of the ice shelves, increased
snowfall dominates the mass budget of the grounded ice, leading to an ensemble mean Antarctic contribution to global mean sea level of a fall of
22 <span class="inline-formula">mm</span> by 2100 in the SSP5–8.5 scenario. We hypothesise that this signal would revert to sea-level rise on longer timescales, caused by the
ice sheet dynamic response to ice shelf thinning. These results demonstrate the need for fully coupled ice–climate models in reducing the
substantial uncertainty in sea-level rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:53:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-df360f90269148b181055b409cd38204 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:53:12Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Cryosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-df360f90269148b181055b409cd382042022-12-22T02:32:27ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242022-10-01164053408610.5194/tc-16-4053-2022The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheetA. Siahaan0R. S. Smith1P. R. Holland2A. Jenkins3A. Jenkins4J. M. Gregory5J. M. Gregory6V. Lee7P. Mathiot8P. Mathiot9A. J. . Payne10J. K. . Ridley11C. G. Jones12British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UKNCAS, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKBritish Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UKBritish Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UKnow at: Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Northumbria, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UKNCAS, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKCPOM, Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKnow at: Institut des Geosciences de l'Environnement, Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, FranceCPOM, Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKNCAS, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK<p>The Antarctic Ice Sheet will play a crucial role in the evolution of global mean sea level as the climate warms. An interactively coupled climate and ice sheet model is needed to understand the impacts of ice–climate feedbacks during this evolution. Here we use a two-way coupling between the UK Earth System Model and the BISICLES (Berkeley Ice Sheet Initiative for Climate at Extreme Scales) dynamic ice sheet model to investigate Antarctic ice–climate interactions under two climate change scenarios. We perform ensembles of SSP1–1.9 and SSP5–8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario simulations to 2100, which we believe are the first such simulations with a climate model that include two-way coupling of atmosphere and ocean models to dynamic models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We focus our analysis on the latter. In SSP1–1.9 simulations, ice shelf basal melting and grounded ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet are generally lower than present rates during the entire simulation period. In contrast, the responses to SSP5–8.5 forcing are strong. By the end of the 21st century, these simulations feature order-of-magnitude increases in basal melting of the Ross and Filchner–Ronne ice shelves, caused by intrusions of masses of warm ocean water. Due to the slow response of ice sheet drawdown, this strong melting does not cause a substantial increase in ice discharge during the simulations. The surface mass balance in SSP5–8.5 simulations shows a pattern of strong decrease on ice shelves, caused by increased melting, and strong increase on grounded ice, caused by increased snowfall. Despite strong surface and basal melting of the ice shelves, increased snowfall dominates the mass budget of the grounded ice, leading to an ensemble mean Antarctic contribution to global mean sea level of a fall of 22 <span class="inline-formula">mm</span> by 2100 in the SSP5–8.5 scenario. We hypothesise that this signal would revert to sea-level rise on longer timescales, caused by the ice sheet dynamic response to ice shelf thinning. These results demonstrate the need for fully coupled ice–climate models in reducing the substantial uncertainty in sea-level rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.</p>https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4053/2022/tc-16-4053-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. Siahaan R. S. Smith P. R. Holland A. Jenkins A. Jenkins J. M. Gregory J. M. Gregory V. Lee P. Mathiot P. Mathiot A. J. . Payne J. K. . Ridley C. G. Jones The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet The Cryosphere |
| title | The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet |
| title_full | The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet |
| title_fullStr | The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet |
| title_short | The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet |
| title_sort | antarctic contribution to 21st century sea level rise predicted by the uk earth system model with an interactive ice sheet |
| url | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4053/2022/tc-16-4053-2022.pdf |
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