Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific
The modulating influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclones (TCs) has been examined globally, regionally, and subregionally, but its impact on the island scale remains unclear. This study investigates how TC activity affecting the Tonga region is being modulated by the MJO,...
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MDPI AG
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/7/1189 |
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| author | Moleni Tu’uholoaki Antonio Espejo Krishneel K. Sharma Awnesh Singh Moritz Wandres Herve Damlamian Savin Chand |
| author_facet | Moleni Tu’uholoaki Antonio Espejo Krishneel K. Sharma Awnesh Singh Moritz Wandres Herve Damlamian Savin Chand |
| author_sort | Moleni Tu’uholoaki |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The modulating influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclones (TCs) has been examined globally, regionally, and subregionally, but its impact on the island scale remains unclear. This study investigates how TC activity affecting the Tonga region is being modulated by the MJO, using the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) and the MJO index. In particular, this study investigates how the MJO modulates the frequency and intensity of TCs affecting the Tonga region relative to the entire study period (1970–2019; hereafter referred to as all years), as well as to different phases of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Results suggest that the MJO strongly modulates TC activity affecting the Tonga region. The frequency and intensity of TCs is enhanced during the active phases (phases six to eight) in all years, including El Niño and ENSO-neutral years. The MJO also strongly influences the climatological pattern of genesis of TCs affecting the Tonga region, where more (fewer) cyclones form in the active (inactive) phases of the MJO and more genesis points are clustered (scattered) near (away from) the Tonga region. There were three regression curves that best described the movement of TCs in the region matching the dominant steering mechanisms in the Southwest Pacific region. The findings of this study can provide climatological information for the Tonga Meteorological Service (TMS) and disaster managers to better understand the TC risk associated with the impact of the MJO on TCs affecting the Tonga region and support its TC early warning system. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T01:19:01Z |
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| id | doaj.art-df68e72f6e4444beb04c6cfcf0d5e7f6 |
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| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T01:19:01Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-df68e72f6e4444beb04c6cfcf0d5e7f62023-11-18T18:16:46ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-07-01147118910.3390/atmos14071189Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest PacificMoleni Tu’uholoaki0Antonio Espejo1Krishneel K. Sharma2Awnesh Singh3Moritz Wandres4Herve Damlamian5Savin Chand6Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, FijiGeoscience, Energy and Maritime Division, Pacific Community, Suva, FijiCentre for New Energy and Transition Research, Federation University, Mt Helen Campus, Victoria, AustraliaPacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, FijiGeoscience, Energy and Maritime Division, Pacific Community, Suva, FijiGeoscience, Energy and Maritime Division, Pacific Community, Suva, FijiCentre for New Energy and Transition Research, Federation University, Mt Helen Campus, Victoria, AustraliaThe modulating influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclones (TCs) has been examined globally, regionally, and subregionally, but its impact on the island scale remains unclear. This study investigates how TC activity affecting the Tonga region is being modulated by the MJO, using the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) and the MJO index. In particular, this study investigates how the MJO modulates the frequency and intensity of TCs affecting the Tonga region relative to the entire study period (1970–2019; hereafter referred to as all years), as well as to different phases of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Results suggest that the MJO strongly modulates TC activity affecting the Tonga region. The frequency and intensity of TCs is enhanced during the active phases (phases six to eight) in all years, including El Niño and ENSO-neutral years. The MJO also strongly influences the climatological pattern of genesis of TCs affecting the Tonga region, where more (fewer) cyclones form in the active (inactive) phases of the MJO and more genesis points are clustered (scattered) near (away from) the Tonga region. There were three regression curves that best described the movement of TCs in the region matching the dominant steering mechanisms in the Southwest Pacific region. The findings of this study can provide climatological information for the Tonga Meteorological Service (TMS) and disaster managers to better understand the TC risk associated with the impact of the MJO on TCs affecting the Tonga region and support its TC early warning system.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/7/1189tropical cyclonesMadden–Julian oscillationsTongaENSOSouthwest Pacificisland scale |
| spellingShingle | Moleni Tu’uholoaki Antonio Espejo Krishneel K. Sharma Awnesh Singh Moritz Wandres Herve Damlamian Savin Chand Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific Atmosphere tropical cyclones Madden–Julian oscillations Tonga ENSO Southwest Pacific island scale |
| title | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific |
| title_full | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific |
| title_fullStr | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific |
| title_short | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific |
| title_sort | influence of the madden julian oscillation mjo on tropical cyclones affecting tonga in the southwest pacific |
| topic | tropical cyclones Madden–Julian oscillations Tonga ENSO Southwest Pacific island scale |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/7/1189 |
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