Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with tree ring archives
We examine the utility of tree ring <sup>14</sup>C archives for detecting long-term changes in fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from a point source. Trees assimilate carbon from the atmosphere during photosynthesis, in the process faithfully recording the average atmospheri...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2016-05-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/5481/2016/acp-16-5481-2016.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818499560000978944 |
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| author | E. D. Keller J. C. Turnbull J. C. Turnbull M. W. Norris |
| author_facet | E. D. Keller J. C. Turnbull J. C. Turnbull M. W. Norris |
| author_sort | E. D. Keller |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We examine the utility of tree ring <sup>14</sup>C archives for detecting long-term
changes in fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from a point source. Trees assimilate
carbon from the atmosphere during photosynthesis, in the process faithfully
recording the average atmospheric <sup>14</sup>C content in each new annual tree
ring. Using <sup>14</sup>C as a proxy for fossil CO<sub>2</sub>, we examine interannual
variability over six years of fossil CO<sub>2</sub> observations between 2004–2005
and 2011–2012 from two trees growing near the Kapuni Gas Treatment
Plant in rural Taranaki, New Zealand. We quantify the amount of
variability that can be attributed to transport and meteorology by simulating
constant point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions over the observation period
with the atmospheric transport model WindTrax. We compare model simulation
results to observations and calculate the amount of change in emissions that
we can detect with new observations over annual or multi-year time periods,
given both the measurement uncertainty of 1ppm and the modelled variation in
transport. In particular, we ask, what is the minimum amount of change in
emissions that we can detect using this method, given a reference period of
six years? We find that changes of 42 % or more could be detected in a
new sample from one year at the same observation location or 22 % in the
case of four years of new samples. This threshold is reduced and the method
becomes more practical the more the size of the signal increases. For point
sources 10 times larger than the Kapuni plant (a more typical size for power
plants worldwide), it would be possible to detect sustained emissions changes
on the order of 10 %, given suitable meteorology and observations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T20:31:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dfaa599f3a7a453dab9ab21290a42eab |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T20:31:10Z |
| publishDate | 2016-05-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-dfaa599f3a7a453dab9ab21290a42eab2022-12-22T01:34:40ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242016-05-01165481549510.5194/acp-16-5481-2016Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with tree ring archivesE. D. Keller0J. C. Turnbull1J. C. Turnbull2M. W. Norris3National Isotope Centre, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New ZealandNational Isotope Centre, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New ZealandCIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USANational Isotope Centre, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New ZealandWe examine the utility of tree ring <sup>14</sup>C archives for detecting long-term changes in fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from a point source. Trees assimilate carbon from the atmosphere during photosynthesis, in the process faithfully recording the average atmospheric <sup>14</sup>C content in each new annual tree ring. Using <sup>14</sup>C as a proxy for fossil CO<sub>2</sub>, we examine interannual variability over six years of fossil CO<sub>2</sub> observations between 2004–2005 and 2011–2012 from two trees growing near the Kapuni Gas Treatment Plant in rural Taranaki, New Zealand. We quantify the amount of variability that can be attributed to transport and meteorology by simulating constant point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions over the observation period with the atmospheric transport model WindTrax. We compare model simulation results to observations and calculate the amount of change in emissions that we can detect with new observations over annual or multi-year time periods, given both the measurement uncertainty of 1ppm and the modelled variation in transport. In particular, we ask, what is the minimum amount of change in emissions that we can detect using this method, given a reference period of six years? We find that changes of 42 % or more could be detected in a new sample from one year at the same observation location or 22 % in the case of four years of new samples. This threshold is reduced and the method becomes more practical the more the size of the signal increases. For point sources 10 times larger than the Kapuni plant (a more typical size for power plants worldwide), it would be possible to detect sustained emissions changes on the order of 10 %, given suitable meteorology and observations.https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/5481/2016/acp-16-5481-2016.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. D. Keller J. C. Turnbull J. C. Turnbull M. W. Norris Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with tree ring archives Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with tree ring archives |
| title_full | Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with tree ring archives |
| title_fullStr | Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with tree ring archives |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with tree ring archives |
| title_short | Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with tree ring archives |
| title_sort | detecting long term changes in point source fossil co sub 2 sub emissions with tree ring archives |
| url | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/5481/2016/acp-16-5481-2016.pdf |
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