Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA
Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five sou...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114013 |
| _version_ | 1797748662009331712 |
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| author | Itziar R Urbieta Gonzalo Zavala Joaquín Bedia José M Gutiérrez Jesús San Miguel-Ayanz Andrea Camia Jon E Keeley José M Moreno |
| author_facet | Itziar R Urbieta Gonzalo Zavala Joaquín Bedia José M Gutiérrez Jesús San Miguel-Ayanz Andrea Camia Jon E Keeley José M Moreno |
| author_sort | Itziar R Urbieta |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R ^2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R ^2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:08:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dfe85e0fd79f4cef83e88009150c22ec |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:08:58Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-dfe85e0fd79f4cef83e88009150c22ec2023-08-09T14:15:53ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-01101111401310.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114013Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USAItziar R Urbieta0Gonzalo Zavala1Joaquín Bedia2José M Gutiérrez3Jesús San Miguel-Ayanz4Andrea Camia5Jon E Keeley6José M Moreno7Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Castilla La Mancha , Av. Carlos III s/n, E-45071 Toledo, SpainDepartamento de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Castilla La Mancha , Av. Carlos III s/n, E-45071 Toledo, SpainGrupo de Meteorología, Instituto de Física de Cantabria, CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria , Avda. de los Castros, s/n, E-39005 Santander, SpainGrupo de Meteorología, Instituto de Física de Cantabria, CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria , Avda. de los Castros, s/n, E-39005 Santander, SpainEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability, I-21027 Ispra Varese, ItalyEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability, I-21027 Ispra Varese, ItalySequoia-Kings Canyon Field Station, Western Ecological Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Three Rivers, CA 93271, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California , Los Angeles, CA 90095, USADepartamento de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Castilla La Mancha , Av. Carlos III s/n, E-45071 Toledo, SpainClimate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R ^2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R ^2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114013area burnedclimate changedroughtfire weather indexlarge firesMediterranean ecosystems |
| spellingShingle | Itziar R Urbieta Gonzalo Zavala Joaquín Bedia José M Gutiérrez Jesús San Miguel-Ayanz Andrea Camia Jon E Keeley José M Moreno Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA Environmental Research Letters area burned climate change drought fire weather index large fires Mediterranean ecosystems |
| title | Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA |
| title_full | Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA |
| title_fullStr | Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA |
| title_short | Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA |
| title_sort | fire activity as a function of fire weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern europe and pacific western usa |
| topic | area burned climate change drought fire weather index large fires Mediterranean ecosystems |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114013 |
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