Renewable energy planning in Africa: robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentials
Increasing renewable sources in the energy mix is essential to mitigate climate change, not least in countries where the energy demand is likely to rise over the coming decades to reduce or even skip durations of time where fossils dominate. For Africa, solar photovoltaic (PV) and inland wind energy...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad17d4 |
| _version_ | 1797359591589150720 |
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| author | Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen Jean Bournhonesque Wim Thiery Kirsten Halsnæs Fred F Hattermann Holger Hoff Seyni Salack Ademola Adenle Stefan Liersch |
| author_facet | Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen Jean Bournhonesque Wim Thiery Kirsten Halsnæs Fred F Hattermann Holger Hoff Seyni Salack Ademola Adenle Stefan Liersch |
| author_sort | Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Increasing renewable sources in the energy mix is essential to mitigate climate change, not least in countries where the energy demand is likely to rise over the coming decades to reduce or even skip durations of time where fossils dominate. For Africa, solar photovoltaic (PV) and inland wind energy, combined with hydropower, provide significant and untapped potentials, whereas trends and robustness measures need further investigation. This study aims to gain insight into distributed trends in solar PV and wind energy potentials over Africa. This study employs relevant metrics, including relative change, model agreement, robustness, bias, and absolute levels for every available model combination and two climate scenarios, with energy planning purposes in mind. The study finds that regional climate models were the primary control of spatio-temporal patterns over their driving global climate model. Solar PV potentials show more coherence between models, a lower bias and general high potentials in most African regions than wind potentials. Favourable locations for inland wind energy include mainly the regions of greater Sahara and the Horn region. For wind and solar potentials combined, scattered locations within Sahara stand out as the most favourable across scenarios and periods. The analysis of minimum energy potentials shows stable conditions despite low potentials in certain regions. The results demonstrate a potential for solar and wind power in most of the African regions and highlight why solar and wind power or synergies of energy mix should be considered for local energy planning and storage solutions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T15:25:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dff0349960024b8ab7767efcc4760ec6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T15:25:57Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-dff0349960024b8ab7767efcc4760ec62024-01-10T09:10:59ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202024-01-016101500110.1088/2515-7620/ad17d4Renewable energy planning in Africa: robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentialsMorten Andreas Dahl Larsen0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7478-5416Jean Bournhonesque1Wim Thiery2Kirsten Halsnæs3Fred F Hattermann4Holger Hoff5Seyni Salack6Ademola Adenle7Stefan Liersch8Danish Meteorological Institute, Skt Kjelds Plads 11, 2100 Kbh Ø, Denmark; Technical University of Denmark , Dept. of Technology, Management and Economics, Produktionstorvet, building 424, 2800 Kgs Lyngby, DenmarkMeteo-France, 73 Avenue de Paris, Saint-Mandé, 94160, FranceVrije Universiteit Brussel , Dept. Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, BelgiumTechnical University of Denmark , Dept. of Technology, Management and Economics, Produktionstorvet, building 424, 2800 Kgs Lyngby, DenmarkPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyUniversity of Graz, Wegener Center für Klima und Globalen Wandel, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, AustriaWest African Science Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou, Burkina FasoAfrica Sustainability Innovation Academy, Lagos, Nigeria; Visiting researcher at Technical University of Denmark, Dept. of Technology, Management and Economics, Produktionstorvet, building 424, 2800 Kgs Lyngby, DenmarkPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyIncreasing renewable sources in the energy mix is essential to mitigate climate change, not least in countries where the energy demand is likely to rise over the coming decades to reduce or even skip durations of time where fossils dominate. For Africa, solar photovoltaic (PV) and inland wind energy, combined with hydropower, provide significant and untapped potentials, whereas trends and robustness measures need further investigation. This study aims to gain insight into distributed trends in solar PV and wind energy potentials over Africa. This study employs relevant metrics, including relative change, model agreement, robustness, bias, and absolute levels for every available model combination and two climate scenarios, with energy planning purposes in mind. The study finds that regional climate models were the primary control of spatio-temporal patterns over their driving global climate model. Solar PV potentials show more coherence between models, a lower bias and general high potentials in most African regions than wind potentials. Favourable locations for inland wind energy include mainly the regions of greater Sahara and the Horn region. For wind and solar potentials combined, scattered locations within Sahara stand out as the most favourable across scenarios and periods. The analysis of minimum energy potentials shows stable conditions despite low potentials in certain regions. The results demonstrate a potential for solar and wind power in most of the African regions and highlight why solar and wind power or synergies of energy mix should be considered for local energy planning and storage solutions.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad17d4renewable energysolar PVwind energyfuture energy potentialsprojection robustnessmulti-ensemble model projection |
| spellingShingle | Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen Jean Bournhonesque Wim Thiery Kirsten Halsnæs Fred F Hattermann Holger Hoff Seyni Salack Ademola Adenle Stefan Liersch Renewable energy planning in Africa: robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentials Environmental Research Communications renewable energy solar PV wind energy future energy potentials projection robustness multi-ensemble model projection |
| title | Renewable energy planning in Africa: robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentials |
| title_full | Renewable energy planning in Africa: robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentials |
| title_fullStr | Renewable energy planning in Africa: robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentials |
| title_full_unstemmed | Renewable energy planning in Africa: robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentials |
| title_short | Renewable energy planning in Africa: robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentials |
| title_sort | renewable energy planning in africa robustness of mean and extreme multi model climate change patterns in solar pv and wind energy potentials |
| topic | renewable energy solar PV wind energy future energy potentials projection robustness multi-ensemble model projection |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad17d4 |
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