Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool
<i>Motive.</i> The Covid-19 pandemic has led to the novel situation that hospitals must prioritize staff for a vaccine rollout while there is acute shortage of the vaccine. In spite of the availability of guidelines from state agencies, there is partial confusion about what an optimal ro...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Vaccines |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/6/546 |
| _version_ | 1797533101162758144 |
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| author | Wolfram A. Bosbach Martin Heinrich Rainer Kolisch Christian Heiss |
| author_facet | Wolfram A. Bosbach Martin Heinrich Rainer Kolisch Christian Heiss |
| author_sort | Wolfram A. Bosbach |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <i>Motive.</i> The Covid-19 pandemic has led to the novel situation that hospitals must prioritize staff for a vaccine rollout while there is acute shortage of the vaccine. In spite of the availability of guidelines from state agencies, there is partial confusion about what an optimal rollout plan is. This study investigates effects in a hospital model under different rollout schemes. <i>Methods.</i> A simulation model is implemented in VBA, and is studied for parameter variation in a predefined hospital setting. The implemented code is available as open access supplement. <i>Main results.</i> A rollout scheme assigning vaccine doses to staff primarily by staff’s pathogen exposure maximizes the predicted open hospital capacity when compared to a rollout based on a purely hierarchical prioritization. The effect increases under resource scarcity and greater disease activity. Nursing staff benefits most from an exposure focused rollout. <i>Conclusions</i>. The model employs SARS-CoV-2 parameters; nonetheless, effects observable in the model are transferable to other infectious diseases. Necessary future prioritization plans need to consider pathogen characteristics and social factors. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:09:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dff3bc6ff7044d6d8e66df02c789e8fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:09:47Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-dff3bc6ff7044d6d8e66df02c789e8fa2023-11-21T20:56:35ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2021-05-019654610.3390/vaccines9060546Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation ToolWolfram A. Bosbach0Martin Heinrich1Rainer Kolisch2Christian Heiss3Experimental Trauma Surgery, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, 35392 Giessen, GermanyExperimental Trauma Surgery, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, 35392 Giessen, GermanyTUM School of Management, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, GermanyExperimental Trauma Surgery, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, 35392 Giessen, Germany<i>Motive.</i> The Covid-19 pandemic has led to the novel situation that hospitals must prioritize staff for a vaccine rollout while there is acute shortage of the vaccine. In spite of the availability of guidelines from state agencies, there is partial confusion about what an optimal rollout plan is. This study investigates effects in a hospital model under different rollout schemes. <i>Methods.</i> A simulation model is implemented in VBA, and is studied for parameter variation in a predefined hospital setting. The implemented code is available as open access supplement. <i>Main results.</i> A rollout scheme assigning vaccine doses to staff primarily by staff’s pathogen exposure maximizes the predicted open hospital capacity when compared to a rollout based on a purely hierarchical prioritization. The effect increases under resource scarcity and greater disease activity. Nursing staff benefits most from an exposure focused rollout. <i>Conclusions</i>. The model employs SARS-CoV-2 parameters; nonetheless, effects observable in the model are transferable to other infectious diseases. Necessary future prioritization plans need to consider pathogen characteristics and social factors.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/6/546SARS-CoV-2 vaccine shortagehospital vaccine rollouthospital management |
| spellingShingle | Wolfram A. Bosbach Martin Heinrich Rainer Kolisch Christian Heiss Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool Vaccines SARS-CoV-2 vaccine shortage hospital vaccine rollout hospital management |
| title | Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool |
| title_full | Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool |
| title_fullStr | Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool |
| title_full_unstemmed | Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool |
| title_short | Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool |
| title_sort | maximization of open hospital capacity under shortage of sars cov 2 vaccines an open access stochastic simulation tool |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 vaccine shortage hospital vaccine rollout hospital management |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/6/546 |
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