Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales
This study investigates the reliability of seasonal to multi-decadal climate simulations of the wet seasons of several key African regions. It is found that reliability varies across regions and seasons, and that simulations of precipitation are universally less reliable than simulations of temperat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104017 |
| _version_ | 1797748095264489472 |
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| author | Fraser C Lott Margaret Gordon Richard J Graham Adam A Scaife Michael Vellinga |
| author_facet | Fraser C Lott Margaret Gordon Richard J Graham Adam A Scaife Michael Vellinga |
| author_sort | Fraser C Lott |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates the reliability of seasonal to multi-decadal climate simulations of the wet seasons of several key African regions. It is found that reliability varies across regions and seasons, and that simulations of precipitation are universally less reliable than simulations of temperature. Similar levels of reliability are found across all the timescales considered for most (but not all) region/season combinations. Reliability for temperatures increases on longer timescales, both due to the differences in the modelling systems for each timescale and, in part, due to the contribution from systematic climate warming. Though the use of reliability is well-established for forecasting, its meaning for attribution is less clear, and further work is underway to further clarify this. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dffc8d77f7dc4ca981328e5513d3daa5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:03Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-dffc8d77f7dc4ca981328e5513d3daa52023-08-09T14:42:03ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262014-01-0191010401710.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104017Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescalesFraser C Lott0Margaret Gordon1Richard J Graham2Adam A Scaife3Michael Vellinga4Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKThis study investigates the reliability of seasonal to multi-decadal climate simulations of the wet seasons of several key African regions. It is found that reliability varies across regions and seasons, and that simulations of precipitation are universally less reliable than simulations of temperature. Similar levels of reliability are found across all the timescales considered for most (but not all) region/season combinations. Reliability for temperatures increases on longer timescales, both due to the differences in the modelling systems for each timescale and, in part, due to the contribution from systematic climate warming. Though the use of reliability is well-established for forecasting, its meaning for attribution is less clear, and further work is underway to further clarify this.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104017climateAfricareliabilityskillseasonaldecadal |
| spellingShingle | Fraser C Lott Margaret Gordon Richard J Graham Adam A Scaife Michael Vellinga Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales Environmental Research Letters climate Africa reliability skill seasonal decadal |
| title | Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales |
| title_full | Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales |
| title_fullStr | Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales |
| title_short | Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales |
| title_sort | reliability of african climate prediction and attribution across timescales |
| topic | climate Africa reliability skill seasonal decadal |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104017 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fraserclott reliabilityofafricanclimatepredictionandattributionacrosstimescales AT margaretgordon reliabilityofafricanclimatepredictionandattributionacrosstimescales AT richardjgraham reliabilityofafricanclimatepredictionandattributionacrosstimescales AT adamascaife reliabilityofafricanclimatepredictionandattributionacrosstimescales AT michaelvellinga reliabilityofafricanclimatepredictionandattributionacrosstimescales |