Risk assessment for cross-border transmission of multi-country Mpox outbreaks in 2022
Objectives: Global trade and travel have facilitated infectious disease transmission. In 2022, over a short time, cross-border Mpox (monkeypox) outbreaks were reported. Since, most countries are at risk of cross-border Mpox transmissions, in this study, we developed a real-time risk assessment model...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Journal of Infection and Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034123000382 |
| _version_ | 1797870624409911296 |
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| author | Qiangru Huang Yanxia Sun Mengmeng Jia Mingyue Jiang Ting Zhang Yunshao Xu Luzhao Feng Weizhong Yang |
| author_facet | Qiangru Huang Yanxia Sun Mengmeng Jia Mingyue Jiang Ting Zhang Yunshao Xu Luzhao Feng Weizhong Yang |
| author_sort | Qiangru Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: Global trade and travel have facilitated infectious disease transmission. In 2022, over a short time, cross-border Mpox (monkeypox) outbreaks were reported. Since, most countries are at risk of cross-border Mpox transmissions, in this study, we developed a real-time risk assessment model for the cross-border transmission of Mpox. Methods: This model includes priori indicators related to the source area before the Mpox outbreak and posterior indicators derived from the quantitative data evaluation afterward. Based on transportation, this model can also be used to assess the global import risk of Mpox for specific countries and cities. Results: European risk values displayed high levels between May and July 2022 and gradually decreased after July. After September 2022, risk values elevated in most countries and regions in the Americas. As for China, high importation risk cities were highly exposed to the United States and moderately exposed to Australia and Germany. Some cities were exposed to the potential risks from only one source country. Conclusions: Dynamic surveillance of the cross-border spread of infectious diseases is essential. Importation risks vary widely across cities and regions, and developing risk prevention and control strategies specific to the traffic flow, medical care capabilities, and risk levels in the main source countries are essential. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:30:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e0399d1ecc294f8d8dc95b978a9d25d7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1876-0341 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:30:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Infection and Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-e0399d1ecc294f8d8dc95b978a9d25d72023-03-15T04:27:34ZengElsevierJournal of Infection and Public Health1876-03412023-04-01164618625Risk assessment for cross-border transmission of multi-country Mpox outbreaks in 2022Qiangru Huang0Yanxia Sun1Mengmeng Jia2Mingyue Jiang3Ting Zhang4Yunshao Xu5Luzhao Feng6Weizhong Yang7School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaCorresponding authors.; School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaCorresponding authors.; School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaObjectives: Global trade and travel have facilitated infectious disease transmission. In 2022, over a short time, cross-border Mpox (monkeypox) outbreaks were reported. Since, most countries are at risk of cross-border Mpox transmissions, in this study, we developed a real-time risk assessment model for the cross-border transmission of Mpox. Methods: This model includes priori indicators related to the source area before the Mpox outbreak and posterior indicators derived from the quantitative data evaluation afterward. Based on transportation, this model can also be used to assess the global import risk of Mpox for specific countries and cities. Results: European risk values displayed high levels between May and July 2022 and gradually decreased after July. After September 2022, risk values elevated in most countries and regions in the Americas. As for China, high importation risk cities were highly exposed to the United States and moderately exposed to Australia and Germany. Some cities were exposed to the potential risks from only one source country. Conclusions: Dynamic surveillance of the cross-border spread of infectious diseases is essential. Importation risks vary widely across cities and regions, and developing risk prevention and control strategies specific to the traffic flow, medical care capabilities, and risk levels in the main source countries are essential.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034123000382Infectious diseaseMpoxCross-border transmissionRisk assessment |
| spellingShingle | Qiangru Huang Yanxia Sun Mengmeng Jia Mingyue Jiang Ting Zhang Yunshao Xu Luzhao Feng Weizhong Yang Risk assessment for cross-border transmission of multi-country Mpox outbreaks in 2022 Journal of Infection and Public Health Infectious disease Mpox Cross-border transmission Risk assessment |
| title | Risk assessment for cross-border transmission of multi-country Mpox outbreaks in 2022 |
| title_full | Risk assessment for cross-border transmission of multi-country Mpox outbreaks in 2022 |
| title_fullStr | Risk assessment for cross-border transmission of multi-country Mpox outbreaks in 2022 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk assessment for cross-border transmission of multi-country Mpox outbreaks in 2022 |
| title_short | Risk assessment for cross-border transmission of multi-country Mpox outbreaks in 2022 |
| title_sort | risk assessment for cross border transmission of multi country mpox outbreaks in 2022 |
| topic | Infectious disease Mpox Cross-border transmission Risk assessment |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034123000382 |
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