The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations
We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372 |
| _version_ | 1797748095480496128 |
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| author | Stephan Lewandowsky Kevin Cowtan James S Risbey Michael E Mann Byron A Steinman Naomi Oreskes Stefan Rahmstorf |
| author_facet | Stephan Lewandowsky Kevin Cowtan James S Risbey Michael E Mann Byron A Steinman Naomi Oreskes Stefan Rahmstorf |
| author_sort | Stephan Lewandowsky |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e04f3fc1b2e24fb1a3328727866acdb6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:04Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-e04f3fc1b2e24fb1a3328727866acdb62023-08-09T14:41:13ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-01131212300710.1088/1748-9326/aaf372The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observationsStephan Lewandowsky0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1655-2013Kevin Cowtan1James S Risbey2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3202-9142Michael E Mann3Byron A Steinman4Naomi Oreskes5Stefan Rahmstorf6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6786-7723University of Bristol , Bristol, United Kingdom; University of Western Australia , Crawley, WA, Australia; CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere , Hobart, Tasmania, AustraliaDepartment of Chemistry, University of York , York, United KingdomCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere , Hobart, Tasmania, AustraliaDepartment of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Pennsylvania State University , State College, United States of AmericaDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota Duluth , Duluth, United States of AmericaDepartment of the History of Science, Harvard University , Cambridge, United States of AmericaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Potsdam, D-14473, Germany; University of Potsdam , Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Potsdam, GermanyWe review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372climate modelsclimate projections‘pause’ in global warming |
| spellingShingle | Stephan Lewandowsky Kevin Cowtan James S Risbey Michael E Mann Byron A Steinman Naomi Oreskes Stefan Rahmstorf The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations Environmental Research Letters climate models climate projections ‘pause’ in global warming |
| title | The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations |
| title_full | The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations |
| title_fullStr | The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations |
| title_full_unstemmed | The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations |
| title_short | The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations |
| title_sort | pause in global warming in historical context ii comparing models to observations |
| topic | climate models climate projections ‘pause’ in global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372 |
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