Relationship between Solar Flux and Sunspot Activity Using Several Regression Models
This study examines the correlation and prediction between sunspots and solar flux, two closely related factors associated with solar activity, covering the period from 2005 to 2022. The study utilizes a combination of linear regression analysis and the ARIMA prediction method to analyze the relati...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Jurusan Fisika, FMIPA Universitas Andalas
2023-06-01
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| Series: | JIF (Jurnal Ilmu Fisika) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jif.fmipa.unand.ac.id/index.php/jif/article/view/553 |
| _version_ | 1797808848419946496 |
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| author | Ruben Cornelius Siagian Lulut Alfaris Ghulab Nabi Ahmad Nazish Laeiq Aldi Cahya Muhammad Ukta Indra Nyuswantoro Budiman Nasution |
| author_facet | Ruben Cornelius Siagian Lulut Alfaris Ghulab Nabi Ahmad Nazish Laeiq Aldi Cahya Muhammad Ukta Indra Nyuswantoro Budiman Nasution |
| author_sort | Ruben Cornelius Siagian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
This study examines the correlation and prediction between sunspots and solar flux, two closely related factors associated with solar activity, covering the period from 2005 to 2022. The study utilizes a combination of linear regression analysis and the ARIMA prediction method to analyze the relationship between these factors and forecast their values. The analysis results reveal a significant positive correlation between sunspots and solar flux. Additionally, the ARIMA prediction method suggests that the SARIMA model can effectively forecast the values of both sunspots and solar flux for a 12-period timeframe. However, it is essential to note that this study solely focuses on correlation analysis and does not establish a causal relationship. Nonetheless, the findings contribute valuable insights into future variations in solar flux and sunspot numbers, thereby aiding scientists in comprehending and predicting solar activity's potential impact on Earth. The study recommends further research to explore additional factors that may influence the relationship between sunspots and solar flux, extend the research period to enhance the accuracy of solar activity predictions and investigate alternative prediction methods to improve the precision of forecasts.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:44:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e097960b47f2438eb494cd73f1b3a272 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1979-4657 2614-7386 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:44:44Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Jurusan Fisika, FMIPA Universitas Andalas |
| record_format | Article |
| series | JIF (Jurnal Ilmu Fisika) |
| spelling | doaj.art-e097960b47f2438eb494cd73f1b3a2722023-06-08T12:06:11ZengJurusan Fisika, FMIPA Universitas AndalasJIF (Jurnal Ilmu Fisika)1979-46572614-73862023-06-0115210.25077/jif.15.2.146-165.2023Relationship between Solar Flux and Sunspot Activity Using Several Regression ModelsRuben Cornelius Siagian0Lulut Alfaris1Ghulab Nabi Ahmad2Nazish Laeiq3Aldi Cahya Muhammad4Ukta Indra Nyuswantoro5Budiman Nasution6Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Medan, Medan, 20221Department of Marine Technology, Politeknik Kelautan dan Perikanan, Pangandaran, 46396Institute of Applied Sciences, Mangalayatan University, Aligarh, 202145Department of Computer Science, Institute of Technology and Management Aligarh, 202140Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Islamic University of Technology, Kustia, 7003Department of Structure Engineering, Asiatek Energi Mitratama, Jakarta, 12870Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Medan, Medan, 20221 This study examines the correlation and prediction between sunspots and solar flux, two closely related factors associated with solar activity, covering the period from 2005 to 2022. The study utilizes a combination of linear regression analysis and the ARIMA prediction method to analyze the relationship between these factors and forecast their values. The analysis results reveal a significant positive correlation between sunspots and solar flux. Additionally, the ARIMA prediction method suggests that the SARIMA model can effectively forecast the values of both sunspots and solar flux for a 12-period timeframe. However, it is essential to note that this study solely focuses on correlation analysis and does not establish a causal relationship. Nonetheless, the findings contribute valuable insights into future variations in solar flux and sunspot numbers, thereby aiding scientists in comprehending and predicting solar activity's potential impact on Earth. The study recommends further research to explore additional factors that may influence the relationship between sunspots and solar flux, extend the research period to enhance the accuracy of solar activity predictions and investigate alternative prediction methods to improve the precision of forecasts. http://jif.fmipa.unand.ac.id/index.php/jif/article/view/553Solar FluxSunspot ActivityRegression AnalyisLinear regressionSARIMA model analysis |
| spellingShingle | Ruben Cornelius Siagian Lulut Alfaris Ghulab Nabi Ahmad Nazish Laeiq Aldi Cahya Muhammad Ukta Indra Nyuswantoro Budiman Nasution Relationship between Solar Flux and Sunspot Activity Using Several Regression Models JIF (Jurnal Ilmu Fisika) Solar Flux Sunspot Activity Regression Analyis Linear regression SARIMA model analysis |
| title | Relationship between Solar Flux and Sunspot Activity Using Several Regression Models |
| title_full | Relationship between Solar Flux and Sunspot Activity Using Several Regression Models |
| title_fullStr | Relationship between Solar Flux and Sunspot Activity Using Several Regression Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Relationship between Solar Flux and Sunspot Activity Using Several Regression Models |
| title_short | Relationship between Solar Flux and Sunspot Activity Using Several Regression Models |
| title_sort | relationship between solar flux and sunspot activity using several regression models |
| topic | Solar Flux Sunspot Activity Regression Analyis Linear regression SARIMA model analysis |
| url | http://jif.fmipa.unand.ac.id/index.php/jif/article/view/553 |
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