Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the most abrupt changes in U.S. labor force participation and unemployment since the Second World War, with different consequences for men and women. This paper models the U.S. labor market to help to interpret the pandemic’s effects. After replicating and extending...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Econometrics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/9/4/46 |
| _version_ | 1797505352228405248 |
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| author | David H. Bernstein Andrew B. Martinez |
| author_facet | David H. Bernstein Andrew B. Martinez |
| author_sort | David H. Bernstein |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the most abrupt changes in U.S. labor force participation and unemployment since the Second World War, with different consequences for men and women. This paper models the U.S. labor market to help to interpret the pandemic’s effects. After replicating and extending Emerson’s (2011) model of the labor market, we formulate a joint model of male and female unemployment and labor force participation rates for 1980–2019 and use it to forecast into the pandemic to understand the pandemic’s labor market consequences. Gender-specific differences were particularly large at the pandemic’s outset; lower labor force participation persists. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:17:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e0a393b9a375459d999c5e1a9e8612b3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-1146 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:17:25Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Econometrics |
| spelling | doaj.art-e0a393b9a375459d999c5e1a9e8612b32023-11-23T07:58:23ZengMDPI AGEconometrics2225-11462021-12-01944610.3390/econometrics9040046Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and UnemploymentDavid H. Bernstein0Andrew B. Martinez1Department of Economics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USAOffice of Macroeconomic Analysis, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC 20022, USAThe COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the most abrupt changes in U.S. labor force participation and unemployment since the Second World War, with different consequences for men and women. This paper models the U.S. labor market to help to interpret the pandemic’s effects. After replicating and extending Emerson’s (2011) model of the labor market, we formulate a joint model of male and female unemployment and labor force participation rates for 1980–2019 and use it to forecast into the pandemic to understand the pandemic’s labor market consequences. Gender-specific differences were particularly large at the pandemic’s outset; lower labor force participation persists.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/9/4/46labor force participationunemploymentgeneral-to-specific modelingcointegration |
| spellingShingle | David H. Bernstein Andrew B. Martinez Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment Econometrics labor force participation unemployment general-to-specific modeling cointegration |
| title | Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment |
| title_full | Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment |
| title_fullStr | Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment |
| title_short | Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment |
| title_sort | jointly modeling male and female labor participation and unemployment |
| topic | labor force participation unemployment general-to-specific modeling cointegration |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/9/4/46 |
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