Use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod.
The semi-enclosed nature and estuarine characteristics, together with its strongly alternating bathymetry, make the Baltic Sea prone to much stronger interannual variations in the abiotic environment, than other spawning habitats of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Processes determining salinity and oxy...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2018-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5955515?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1819075322534952960 |
|---|---|
| author | Burkhard von Dewitz Susanne Tamm Katharina Höflich Rüdiger Voss Hans-Harald Hinrichsen |
| author_facet | Burkhard von Dewitz Susanne Tamm Katharina Höflich Rüdiger Voss Hans-Harald Hinrichsen |
| author_sort | Burkhard von Dewitz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The semi-enclosed nature and estuarine characteristics, together with its strongly alternating bathymetry, make the Baltic Sea prone to much stronger interannual variations in the abiotic environment, than other spawning habitats of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Processes determining salinity and oxygen conditions in the basins are influenced both by long term gradual climate change, e.g. global warming, but also by short-term meteorological variations and events. Specifically one main factor influencing cod spawning conditions, the advection of highly saline and well-oxygenated water masses from the North Sea, is observed in irregular frequencies and causes strong interannual variations in stock productivity. This study investigates the possibility to use the available hydrographic process knowledge to predict the annual spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod in its most important spawning ground, the Bornholm Basin, only by salinity measurements from a specific location in the western Baltic. Such a prediction could serve as an environmental early warning indicator to inform stock assessment and management. Here we used a hydrodynamic model to hindcast hydrographic property fields for the last 40+ years. High and significant correlations were found for months early in the year between the 33m salinity level in the Arkona Basin and the oxygen-dependent cod spawning environment in the Bornholm Basin. Direct prediction of the Eastern Baltic cod egg survival in the Bornholm Basin based on salinity values in the Arkona Basin at the 33 m depth level is shown to be possible for eggs spawned by mid-age and young females, which currently predominate the stock structure. We recommend to routinely perform short-term predictions of the Eastern Baltic cod spawning environment, in order to generate environmental information highly relevant for stock dynamics. Our statistical approach offers the opportunity to make best use of permanently existing infrastructure in the western Baltic to timely provide scientific knowledge on the spawning conditions of Eastern Baltic cod. Furthermore it could be a tool to assist ecosystem-based fisheries management with a cost-effective implementation by including the short term predictions as a simple indicator in the annual assessments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T18:23:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e0b1d9af12494d749694ed14f018a017 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T18:23:34Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-e0b1d9af12494d749694ed14f018a0172022-12-21T18:54:29ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032018-01-01135e019647710.1371/journal.pone.0196477Use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod.Burkhard von DewitzSusanne TammKatharina HöflichRüdiger VossHans-Harald HinrichsenThe semi-enclosed nature and estuarine characteristics, together with its strongly alternating bathymetry, make the Baltic Sea prone to much stronger interannual variations in the abiotic environment, than other spawning habitats of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Processes determining salinity and oxygen conditions in the basins are influenced both by long term gradual climate change, e.g. global warming, but also by short-term meteorological variations and events. Specifically one main factor influencing cod spawning conditions, the advection of highly saline and well-oxygenated water masses from the North Sea, is observed in irregular frequencies and causes strong interannual variations in stock productivity. This study investigates the possibility to use the available hydrographic process knowledge to predict the annual spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod in its most important spawning ground, the Bornholm Basin, only by salinity measurements from a specific location in the western Baltic. Such a prediction could serve as an environmental early warning indicator to inform stock assessment and management. Here we used a hydrodynamic model to hindcast hydrographic property fields for the last 40+ years. High and significant correlations were found for months early in the year between the 33m salinity level in the Arkona Basin and the oxygen-dependent cod spawning environment in the Bornholm Basin. Direct prediction of the Eastern Baltic cod egg survival in the Bornholm Basin based on salinity values in the Arkona Basin at the 33 m depth level is shown to be possible for eggs spawned by mid-age and young females, which currently predominate the stock structure. We recommend to routinely perform short-term predictions of the Eastern Baltic cod spawning environment, in order to generate environmental information highly relevant for stock dynamics. Our statistical approach offers the opportunity to make best use of permanently existing infrastructure in the western Baltic to timely provide scientific knowledge on the spawning conditions of Eastern Baltic cod. Furthermore it could be a tool to assist ecosystem-based fisheries management with a cost-effective implementation by including the short term predictions as a simple indicator in the annual assessments.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5955515?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Burkhard von Dewitz Susanne Tamm Katharina Höflich Rüdiger Voss Hans-Harald Hinrichsen Use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod. PLoS ONE |
| title | Use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod. |
| title_full | Use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod. |
| title_fullStr | Use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod. |
| title_short | Use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod. |
| title_sort | use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for eastern baltic cod |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5955515?pdf=render |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT burkhardvondewitz useofexistinghydrographicinfrastructuretoforecasttheenvironmentalspawningconditionsforeasternbalticcod AT susannetamm useofexistinghydrographicinfrastructuretoforecasttheenvironmentalspawningconditionsforeasternbalticcod AT katharinahoflich useofexistinghydrographicinfrastructuretoforecasttheenvironmentalspawningconditionsforeasternbalticcod AT rudigervoss useofexistinghydrographicinfrastructuretoforecasttheenvironmentalspawningconditionsforeasternbalticcod AT hansharaldhinrichsen useofexistinghydrographicinfrastructuretoforecasttheenvironmentalspawningconditionsforeasternbalticcod |