Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways
The extent to which societies will globally be able to adapt to climate change is not well understood. Here we analyze socioeconomic dimensions of adaptive capacity of populations to deal with heat stress and find income, urbanization and income inequality to be important factors in explaining adapt...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2195 |
| _version_ | 1797747556015407104 |
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| author | Marina Andrijevic Edward Byers Alessio Mastrucci Jeroen Smits Sabine Fuss |
| author_facet | Marina Andrijevic Edward Byers Alessio Mastrucci Jeroen Smits Sabine Fuss |
| author_sort | Marina Andrijevic |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The extent to which societies will globally be able to adapt to climate change is not well understood. Here we analyze socioeconomic dimensions of adaptive capacity of populations to deal with heat stress and find income, urbanization and income inequality to be important factors in explaining adaptation to heat stress with air conditioning (AC). Using the scenario framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we estimate the future cooling gap, which represents the difference between the population exposed to heat stress and the population able to protect against heat stress with AC. Depending on the scenario of socioeconomic development, total population affected by the cooling gap may vary between 2 billion and 5 billion people in 2050, with the scenario-dependent range widening further towards the end of the century. Our analysis shows vast regional inequalities in adaptive capacity for one of the most universal manifestations of climate change, underscoring the need to account for the different potential levels of adaptive capacity in assessments of climate change impacts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e0c0830e563d4bc4b90f0d166086f459 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:15Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-e0c0830e563d4bc4b90f0d166086f4592023-08-09T15:05:14ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116909405310.1088/1748-9326/ac2195Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathwaysMarina Andrijevic0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0199-1988Edward Byers1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5742Alessio Mastrucci2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5611-7780Jeroen Smits3Sabine Fuss4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8681-9839Geography Department, Humboldt University in Berlin , Berlin, Germany; Climate Analytics , Berlin, Germany; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, AustriaInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, AustriaInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, AustriaGlobal Data Lab, Institute for Management, Radboud University , Nijmegen, NetherlandsGeography Department, Humboldt University in Berlin , Berlin, Germany; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) , Berlin, GermanyThe extent to which societies will globally be able to adapt to climate change is not well understood. Here we analyze socioeconomic dimensions of adaptive capacity of populations to deal with heat stress and find income, urbanization and income inequality to be important factors in explaining adaptation to heat stress with air conditioning (AC). Using the scenario framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we estimate the future cooling gap, which represents the difference between the population exposed to heat stress and the population able to protect against heat stress with AC. Depending on the scenario of socioeconomic development, total population affected by the cooling gap may vary between 2 billion and 5 billion people in 2050, with the scenario-dependent range widening further towards the end of the century. Our analysis shows vast regional inequalities in adaptive capacity for one of the most universal manifestations of climate change, underscoring the need to account for the different potential levels of adaptive capacity in assessments of climate change impacts.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2195cooling gapadaptive capacityheat stressair conditioning |
| spellingShingle | Marina Andrijevic Edward Byers Alessio Mastrucci Jeroen Smits Sabine Fuss Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways Environmental Research Letters cooling gap adaptive capacity heat stress air conditioning |
| title | Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_full | Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_fullStr | Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_short | Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title_sort | future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways |
| topic | cooling gap adaptive capacity heat stress air conditioning |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2195 |
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