SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data.
<h4>Background</h4>Risk factors of severe COVID-19 have mainly been investigated in the hospital setting. We investigated pre-defined risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in the outpatient setting.<h4>Methods</h...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258914 |
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| author | Siranush Karapetyan Antonius Schneider Klaus Linde Ewan Donnachie Alexander Hapfelmeier |
| author_facet | Siranush Karapetyan Antonius Schneider Klaus Linde Ewan Donnachie Alexander Hapfelmeier |
| author_sort | Siranush Karapetyan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>Risk factors of severe COVID-19 have mainly been investigated in the hospital setting. We investigated pre-defined risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in the outpatient setting.<h4>Methods</h4>The present cohort study makes use of ambulatory claims data of statutory health insurance physicians in Bavaria, Germany, with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test confirmed or excluded SARS-CoV-2 infection in first three quarters of 2020. Statistical modelling and machine learning were used for effect estimation and for hypothesis testing of risk factors, and for prognostic modelling of cardiovascular or pulmonary complications.<h4>Results</h4>A cohort of 99 811 participants with PCR test was identified. In a fully adjusted multivariable regression model, dementia (odds ratio (OR) = 1.36), type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.14) and obesity (OR = 1.08) were identified as significantly associated with a positive PCR test result. Significant risk factors for cardiovascular or pulmonary complications were coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR = 2.58), hypertension (OR = 1.65), tobacco consumption (OR = 1.56), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR = 1.53), previous pneumonia (OR = 1.53), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 1.25) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.23). Three simple decision rules derived from prognostic modelling based on age, hypertension, CKD, COPD and CHD were able to identify high risk patients with a sensitivity of 74.8% and a specificity of 80.0%.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The decision rules achieved a high prognostic accuracy non-inferior to complex machine learning methods. They might help to identify patients at risk, who should receive special attention and intensified protection in ambulatory care. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T01:33:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e0e02fee03884d358388505284f3d01f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T01:33:20Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-e0e02fee03884d358388505284f3d01f2022-12-21T18:43:27ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032021-01-011610e025891410.1371/journal.pone.0258914SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data.Siranush KarapetyanAntonius SchneiderKlaus LindeEwan DonnachieAlexander Hapfelmeier<h4>Background</h4>Risk factors of severe COVID-19 have mainly been investigated in the hospital setting. We investigated pre-defined risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in the outpatient setting.<h4>Methods</h4>The present cohort study makes use of ambulatory claims data of statutory health insurance physicians in Bavaria, Germany, with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test confirmed or excluded SARS-CoV-2 infection in first three quarters of 2020. Statistical modelling and machine learning were used for effect estimation and for hypothesis testing of risk factors, and for prognostic modelling of cardiovascular or pulmonary complications.<h4>Results</h4>A cohort of 99 811 participants with PCR test was identified. In a fully adjusted multivariable regression model, dementia (odds ratio (OR) = 1.36), type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.14) and obesity (OR = 1.08) were identified as significantly associated with a positive PCR test result. Significant risk factors for cardiovascular or pulmonary complications were coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR = 2.58), hypertension (OR = 1.65), tobacco consumption (OR = 1.56), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR = 1.53), previous pneumonia (OR = 1.53), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 1.25) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.23). Three simple decision rules derived from prognostic modelling based on age, hypertension, CKD, COPD and CHD were able to identify high risk patients with a sensitivity of 74.8% and a specificity of 80.0%.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The decision rules achieved a high prognostic accuracy non-inferior to complex machine learning methods. They might help to identify patients at risk, who should receive special attention and intensified protection in ambulatory care.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258914 |
| spellingShingle | Siranush Karapetyan Antonius Schneider Klaus Linde Ewan Donnachie Alexander Hapfelmeier SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data. PLoS ONE |
| title | SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data. |
| title_full | SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data. |
| title_fullStr | SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data. |
| title_full_unstemmed | SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data. |
| title_short | SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data. |
| title_sort | sars cov 2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care a risk assessment based on routine data |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258914 |
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