Effect of Changes in the Age Structure of the Population in the Incidence of Influenza and ARI in the Cities of Russia from 1986 to 2014
In order to study the dynamics of the incidence of influenza and ARI in the cities of Russia and the impact of the demographic composition of its population we evaluated changes in the age structure of the population from 1986 to 2014. Considerable changes in the 28 years dynamics of the total incid...
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| Materiálatiipa: | Artihkal |
| Giella: | Russian |
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Numikom LLC
2015-12-01
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| Ráidu: | Эпидемиология и вакцинопрофилактика |
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| Liŋkkat: | https://www.epidemvac.ru/jour/article/view/94 |
| _version_ | 1826567561037217792 |
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| author | T. I. Sysoeva L. S. Karpova |
| author_facet | T. I. Sysoeva L. S. Karpova |
| author_sort | T. I. Sysoeva |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In order to study the dynamics of the incidence of influenza and ARI in the cities of Russia and the impact of the demographic composition of its population we evaluated changes in the age structure of the population from 1986 to 2014. Considerable changes in the 28 years dynamics of the total incidence of influenza and ARI revealed. The highest incidence rate from 1969 to 1990 gave way to decrease in the incidence from 1991 to 2008 in all cities, especially in megacities, and to increase during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation. Reduction of the differences in the incidence of influenza and ARI in cities with different population is noted. From 1969 to 2014 there have been significant changes in the dynamics of influenza and ARI incidence: reduction in the incidence from 1991 in all the cities, especially in megacities, increasing of incidence during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation years from 2009 to 2014, and reducing the difference in the incidence of influenza and ARI in cities with varying populations. In most cities, the incidence remained high throughout the observation period. In 2009 - 2014 the incidence has become higher in the Barnaul, Irkutsk, Yakutsk, and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, and lower in the Krasnodar and Ulan-Ude compared with the periods from 1986 to 2008. The results from correlation analysis reveal that incidence of influenza and ARI is significantly positively correlated with the age and number of children's groups, more pronounced in the younger age groups, at 95% confidence level. Children 0 - 2 years revealed significant strong correlation in 27 of the 34 cities, the average correlation coefficient, R = 0.75, children 3 - 6 years - a strong (in 16 cities) and the average (in 16 cities), R = 0.63, children 7 - 14 years - a strong (in 9 cities) and average (in 15 cities), R = 0.53, in adults found an association of moderate strength only in 8 cities R = 0.48. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T02:52:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e120627b0f9b43a58444d02a3c177aaf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-3046 2619-0494 |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2025-03-14T11:09:30Z |
| publishDate | 2015-12-01 |
| publisher | Numikom LLC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Эпидемиология и вакцинопрофилактика |
| spelling | doaj.art-e120627b0f9b43a58444d02a3c177aaf2025-03-02T10:40:26ZrusNumikom LLCЭпидемиология и вакцинопрофилактика2073-30462619-04942015-12-0114661510.31631/2073-3046-2015-14-6-6-1593Effect of Changes in the Age Structure of the Population in the Incidence of Influenza and ARI in the Cities of Russia from 1986 to 2014T. I. Sysoeva0L. S. Karpova1Federal Budgetary State Institution «Research Institute of Influenza» of the Ministry of Healthcare of the Russian FederationFederal Budgetary State Institution «Research Institute of Influenza» of the Ministry of Healthcare of the Russian FederationIn order to study the dynamics of the incidence of influenza and ARI in the cities of Russia and the impact of the demographic composition of its population we evaluated changes in the age structure of the population from 1986 to 2014. Considerable changes in the 28 years dynamics of the total incidence of influenza and ARI revealed. The highest incidence rate from 1969 to 1990 gave way to decrease in the incidence from 1991 to 2008 in all cities, especially in megacities, and to increase during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation. Reduction of the differences in the incidence of influenza and ARI in cities with different population is noted. From 1969 to 2014 there have been significant changes in the dynamics of influenza and ARI incidence: reduction in the incidence from 1991 in all the cities, especially in megacities, increasing of incidence during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation years from 2009 to 2014, and reducing the difference in the incidence of influenza and ARI in cities with varying populations. In most cities, the incidence remained high throughout the observation period. In 2009 - 2014 the incidence has become higher in the Barnaul, Irkutsk, Yakutsk, and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, and lower in the Krasnodar and Ulan-Ude compared with the periods from 1986 to 2008. The results from correlation analysis reveal that incidence of influenza and ARI is significantly positively correlated with the age and number of children's groups, more pronounced in the younger age groups, at 95% confidence level. Children 0 - 2 years revealed significant strong correlation in 27 of the 34 cities, the average correlation coefficient, R = 0.75, children 3 - 6 years - a strong (in 16 cities) and the average (in 16 cities), R = 0.63, children 7 - 14 years - a strong (in 9 cities) and average (in 15 cities), R = 0.53, in adults found an association of moderate strength only in 8 cities R = 0.48.https://www.epidemvac.ru/jour/article/view/94заболеваемость гриппом и орвивозрастной состав населениякорреляционная связьthe incidence of influenza and arithe age composition of the populationcorrelation analysis |
| spellingShingle | T. I. Sysoeva L. S. Karpova Effect of Changes in the Age Structure of the Population in the Incidence of Influenza and ARI in the Cities of Russia from 1986 to 2014 Эпидемиология и вакцинопрофилактика заболеваемость гриппом и орви возрастной состав населения корреляционная связь the incidence of influenza and ari the age composition of the population correlation analysis |
| title | Effect of Changes in the Age Structure of the Population in the Incidence of Influenza and ARI in the Cities of Russia from 1986 to 2014 |
| title_full | Effect of Changes in the Age Structure of the Population in the Incidence of Influenza and ARI in the Cities of Russia from 1986 to 2014 |
| title_fullStr | Effect of Changes in the Age Structure of the Population in the Incidence of Influenza and ARI in the Cities of Russia from 1986 to 2014 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effect of Changes in the Age Structure of the Population in the Incidence of Influenza and ARI in the Cities of Russia from 1986 to 2014 |
| title_short | Effect of Changes in the Age Structure of the Population in the Incidence of Influenza and ARI in the Cities of Russia from 1986 to 2014 |
| title_sort | effect of changes in the age structure of the population in the incidence of influenza and ari in the cities of russia from 1986 to 2014 |
| topic | заболеваемость гриппом и орви возрастной состав населения корреляционная связь the incidence of influenza and ari the age composition of the population correlation analysis |
| url | https://www.epidemvac.ru/jour/article/view/94 |
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