Zero-and-One Integer-Valued AR(1) Time Series with Power Series Innovations and Probability Generating Function Estimation Approach

Zero-and-one inflated count time series have only recently become the subject of more extensive interest and research. One of the possible approaches is represented by first-order, non-negative, integer-valued autoregressive processes with zero-and-one inflated innovations, abbr. ZOINAR(1) processes...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Vladica S. Stojanović, Hassan S. Bakouch, Eugen Ljajko, Najla Qarmalah
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023-04-01
Series:Mathematics
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/8/1772
Description
Summary:Zero-and-one inflated count time series have only recently become the subject of more extensive interest and research. One of the possible approaches is represented by first-order, non-negative, integer-valued autoregressive processes with zero-and-one inflated innovations, abbr. ZOINAR(1) processes, introduced recently, around the year 2020 to the present. This manuscript presents a generalization of ZOINAR processes, given by introducing the zero-and-one inflated power series (ZOIPS) distributions. Thus, the obtained process, named the ZOIPS-INAR(1) process, has been investigated in terms of its basic stochastic properties (e.g., moments, correlation structure and distributional properties). To estimate the parameters of the ZOIPS-INAR(1) model, in addition to the conditional least-squares (CLS) method, a recent estimation technique based on probability-generating functions (PGFs) is discussed. The asymptotic properties of the obtained estimators are also examined, as well as their Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, as an application of the ZOIPS-INAR(1) model, a dynamic analysis of the number of deaths from the disease COVID-19 in Serbia is considered.
ISSN:2227-7390