Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile
In this study, the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is implemented to determine the effect of climate change on various hydrological components in two basins located in the foothills of the Andes: the Quino and Muco river basins. The water cycle is analyzed by comparing the model...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/6/794 |
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| author | Rebeca Martínez-Retureta Mauricio Aguayo Norberto J Abreu Alejandra Stehr Iongel Duran-Llacer Lien Rodríguez-López Sabine Sauvage José-Miguel Sánchez-Pérez |
| author_facet | Rebeca Martínez-Retureta Mauricio Aguayo Norberto J Abreu Alejandra Stehr Iongel Duran-Llacer Lien Rodríguez-López Sabine Sauvage José-Miguel Sánchez-Pérez |
| author_sort | Rebeca Martínez-Retureta |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is implemented to determine the effect of climate change on various hydrological components in two basins located in the foothills of the Andes: the Quino and Muco river basins. The water cycle is analyzed by comparing the model results to climatic data observed in the past (1982–2016) to understand its trend behaviors. Then, the variations and geographical distribution of the components of the hydrological cycle were analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 climate scenario to model two periods considering the immediate future (2020–2049) and intermediate future (2050–2079). In this way, in the study area, it is predicted that yearly average temperatures will increase up to 1.7 °C and that annual average precipitation will decrease up to 210 mm for the intermediate future. Obtained results show that the analyzed parameters presented the same trend behavior for both periods of time; however, a greater impact can be expected in the intermediate future. According to the spatial distribution, the impact worsens for all the parameters as the elevation increases in both basins. The model depicted that yearly average evapotranspiration would increase around 5.26% and 5.81% for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, due to the large increase in temperature. This may cause, when combined with the precipitation lessening, a decrease around 9.52% and 9.73% of percolation, 2.38% and 1.76% of surface flow, and 7.44% and 8.14% of groundwater for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, with a consequent decrease of the water yield in 5.25% and 4.98% in the aforementioned watersheds, respectively. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:15:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e152b0d7dfb44dff85befc9fb0880c2b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:15:55Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-e152b0d7dfb44dff85befc9fb0880c2b2023-11-21T10:27:35ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412021-03-0113679410.3390/w13060794Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central ChileRebeca Martínez-Retureta0Mauricio Aguayo1Norberto J Abreu2Alejandra Stehr3Iongel Duran-Llacer4Lien Rodríguez-López5Sabine Sauvage6José-Miguel Sánchez-Pérez7Environmental Sciences Center EULA-Chile, University of Concepción, Concepción 4070386, ChileEnvironmental Sciences Center EULA-Chile, University of Concepción, Concepción 4070386, ChileCenter of Waste Management and Bioenergy, Scientific and Technological Bioresources Nucleus, Universidad de la Frontera, Casilla 54-D, Temuco 4780000, ChileEnvironmental Sciences Center EULA-Chile, University of Concepción, Concepción 4070386, ChileEnvironmental Sciences Center EULA-Chile, University of Concepción, Concepción 4070386, ChileEnvironmental Sciences Center EULA-Chile, University of Concepción, Concepción 4070386, ChileECOLAB, University of Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, 31326 Auzeville-Tolosane, FranceECOLAB, University of Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, 31326 Auzeville-Tolosane, FranceIn this study, the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is implemented to determine the effect of climate change on various hydrological components in two basins located in the foothills of the Andes: the Quino and Muco river basins. The water cycle is analyzed by comparing the model results to climatic data observed in the past (1982–2016) to understand its trend behaviors. Then, the variations and geographical distribution of the components of the hydrological cycle were analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 climate scenario to model two periods considering the immediate future (2020–2049) and intermediate future (2050–2079). In this way, in the study area, it is predicted that yearly average temperatures will increase up to 1.7 °C and that annual average precipitation will decrease up to 210 mm for the intermediate future. Obtained results show that the analyzed parameters presented the same trend behavior for both periods of time; however, a greater impact can be expected in the intermediate future. According to the spatial distribution, the impact worsens for all the parameters as the elevation increases in both basins. The model depicted that yearly average evapotranspiration would increase around 5.26% and 5.81% for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, due to the large increase in temperature. This may cause, when combined with the precipitation lessening, a decrease around 9.52% and 9.73% of percolation, 2.38% and 1.76% of surface flow, and 7.44% and 8.14% of groundwater for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, with a consequent decrease of the water yield in 5.25% and 4.98% in the aforementioned watersheds, respectively.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/6/794climate changeRCP8.5SWAT modelwater cycle components |
| spellingShingle | Rebeca Martínez-Retureta Mauricio Aguayo Norberto J Abreu Alejandra Stehr Iongel Duran-Llacer Lien Rodríguez-López Sabine Sauvage José-Miguel Sánchez-Pérez Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile Water climate change RCP8.5 SWAT model water cycle components |
| title | Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile |
| title_full | Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile |
| title_short | Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile |
| title_sort | estimation of the climate change impact on the hydrological balance in basins of south central chile |
| topic | climate change RCP8.5 SWAT model water cycle components |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/6/794 |
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