| Summary: | In order to limit global warming to around 1.5⁻2.0 °C by the end of the 21st century, there is the need to drastically limit the emissions of CO<sub>2</sub>. This goal can be pursued by promoting the diffusion of advanced technologies for power generation from renewable energy sources. In this field, biomass can play a very important role since, differently from solar and wind, it can be considered a programmable source. This paper reports a techno-economic analysis on the possible commercial application of gasification technologies for small-scale (2 MW<sub>e</sub>) power generation from biomass. The analysis is based on the preliminary experimental performance of a 500 kW<sub>th</sub> pilot-scale air-blown bubbling fluidized-bed (BFB) gasification plant, recently installed at the Sotacarbo Research Centre (Italy) and commissioned in December 2017. The analysis confirms that air-blown BFB biomass gasification can be profitable for the applications with low-cost biomass, such as agricultural waste, with a net present value up to about 6 M€ as long as the biomass is provided for free; on the contrary, the technology is not competitive for high-quality biomass (wood chips, as those used for the preliminary experimental tests). In parallel, an analysis of the financial risk was carried out, in order to estimate the probability of a profitable investment if a variation of the key financial parameters occurs. In particular, the analysis shows a probability of 90% of a NPV at 15 years between 1.4 and 5.1 M€ and an IRR between 11.6% and 23.7%.
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