The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments
The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-11-01
|
| Series: | Heliyon |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023094793 |
| _version_ | 1797429723241906176 |
|---|---|
| author | Jonathan Vincents Eriksen Sebastian Marco Franz Julius Steensberg Adam Vejstrup Mikkel Bosack Rasmus Bramstoft Fabian Scheller |
| author_facet | Jonathan Vincents Eriksen Sebastian Marco Franz Julius Steensberg Adam Vejstrup Mikkel Bosack Rasmus Bramstoft Fabian Scheller |
| author_sort | Jonathan Vincents Eriksen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economic aspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising from socioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energy efficiency measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T09:17:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e1b9848070114727bbeb49344411e7fe |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T09:17:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-e1b9848070114727bbeb49344411e7fe2023-12-02T07:05:37ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402023-11-01911e22271The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developmentsJonathan Vincents Eriksen0Sebastian Marco Franz1Julius Steensberg2Adam Vejstrup3Mikkel Bosack4Rasmus Bramstoft5Fabian Scheller6Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Denmark; Energy Modelling Lab (EML), Denmark; Corresponding authors.Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), DenmarkDepartment of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Denmark; Energy Modelling Lab (EML), DenmarkDepartment of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Denmark; Energy Modelling Lab (EML), DenmarkEnergy Modelling Lab (EML), DenmarkDepartment of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), DenmarkInstitute Zero Carbon (IZEC), Technical University of Applied Sciences Würzburg-Schweinfurt (THWS), Germany; Center for Applied Energy Research (CAE), Würzburg, Germany; Corresponding authors.The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economic aspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising from socioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energy efficiency measures.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023094793Renewable fuelsHydrogenEnergy system analysisEnergy transitionShared socioeconomic pathways |
| spellingShingle | Jonathan Vincents Eriksen Sebastian Marco Franz Julius Steensberg Adam Vejstrup Mikkel Bosack Rasmus Bramstoft Fabian Scheller The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments Heliyon Renewable fuels Hydrogen Energy system analysis Energy transition Shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title | The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments |
| title_full | The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments |
| title_fullStr | The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments |
| title_full_unstemmed | The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments |
| title_short | The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments |
| title_sort | future demand of renewable fuels in germany understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio economic developments |
| topic | Renewable fuels Hydrogen Energy system analysis Energy transition Shared socioeconomic pathways |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023094793 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jonathanvincentseriksen thefuturedemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT sebastianmarcofranz thefuturedemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT juliussteensberg thefuturedemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT adamvejstrup thefuturedemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT mikkelbosack thefuturedemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT rasmusbramstoft thefuturedemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT fabianscheller thefuturedemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT jonathanvincentseriksen futuredemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT sebastianmarcofranz futuredemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT juliussteensberg futuredemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT adamvejstrup futuredemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT mikkelbosack futuredemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT rasmusbramstoft futuredemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments AT fabianscheller futuredemandofrenewablefuelsingermanyunderstandingtheimpactofelectrificationlevelsandsocioeconomicdevelopments |