Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China
<p>Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative natural-disaster risk assessment model, in this study, we analysed the response of the characteristics of flood events in China to 1.5 and 2 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of glob...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1577/2022/nhess-22-1577-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811306772358496256 |
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| author | L. Liu J. Gao S. Wu S. Wu |
| author_facet | L. Liu J. Gao S. Wu S. Wu |
| author_sort | L. Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Based on future scenario data and an improved
quantitative natural-disaster risk assessment model, in this study, we
analysed the response of the characteristics of flood events in China to 1.5 and 2 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of global warming, quantitatively
assessed the population affected and the economic risks of floods, and
determined the integrated risk levels. The results indicate that, for the RCP4.5 (Representative
Concentration Pathway) and RCP8.5 scenarios, the probability and distribution area of the floods
increase with increasing temperature and the influence range of the floods
of different levels expands more rapidly under the RCP4.5 scenario. The floods
mainly affect the social economy in the regions with lower altitudes and
smaller slopes in eastern China. As the increase in temperature intensifies,
the population affected and the direct economic losses are aggravated. For
2 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of global warming, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the population
affected by floods increases by 2 million, and the economic risk nearly
doubles compared with 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of global warming. The economic risk
under the RCP4.5 scenario even reaches 3 times that for 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of
global warming, but its proportion to the gross domestic product (GDP) is
lower than that under the RCP8.5 scenario. Under both scenarios, the ranges of
the zones of medium–high flood risk gradually expand westward and northward.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T08:51:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e1de997633814f31b8d97b2966250f6a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T08:51:34Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-e1de997633814f31b8d97b2966250f6a2022-12-22T02:53:28ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812022-05-01221577159010.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in ChinaL. Liu0J. Gao1S. Wu2S. Wu3Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China<p>Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative natural-disaster risk assessment model, in this study, we analysed the response of the characteristics of flood events in China to 1.5 and 2 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of global warming, quantitatively assessed the population affected and the economic risks of floods, and determined the integrated risk levels. The results indicate that, for the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) and RCP8.5 scenarios, the probability and distribution area of the floods increase with increasing temperature and the influence range of the floods of different levels expands more rapidly under the RCP4.5 scenario. The floods mainly affect the social economy in the regions with lower altitudes and smaller slopes in eastern China. As the increase in temperature intensifies, the population affected and the direct economic losses are aggravated. For 2 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of global warming, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the population affected by floods increases by 2 million, and the economic risk nearly doubles compared with 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of global warming. The economic risk under the RCP4.5 scenario even reaches 3 times that for 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C of global warming, but its proportion to the gross domestic product (GDP) is lower than that under the RCP8.5 scenario. Under both scenarios, the ranges of the zones of medium–high flood risk gradually expand westward and northward.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1577/2022/nhess-22-1577-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | L. Liu J. Gao S. Wu S. Wu Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China |
| title_full | Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China |
| title_fullStr | Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China |
| title_short | Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China |
| title_sort | warming of 0 5 thinsp °c may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in china |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1577/2022/nhess-22-1577-2022.pdf |
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