Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
<p>Coastal floods, driven by extreme sea levels, are one of the most dangerous natural hazards. The people at highest risk are those living in low-lying coastal areas exposed to tropical-cyclone-forced storm surges. Here we apply a novel modelling framework to estimate past and/or present and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/2475/2023/nhess-23-2475-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827902658343600128 |
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| author | M. Wood I. D. Haigh Q. Q. Le H. N. Nguyen H. B. Tran S. E. Darby R. Marsh N. Skliris J. J.-M. Hirschi R. J. Nicholls N. Bloemendaal |
| author_facet | M. Wood I. D. Haigh Q. Q. Le H. N. Nguyen H. B. Tran S. E. Darby R. Marsh N. Skliris J. J.-M. Hirschi R. J. Nicholls N. Bloemendaal |
| author_sort | M. Wood |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Coastal floods, driven by extreme sea levels, are one of the most dangerous
natural hazards. The people at highest risk are those living in low-lying
coastal areas exposed to tropical-cyclone-forced storm surges. Here we
apply a novel modelling framework to estimate past and/or present and future storm-surge-level and extreme-sea-level probabilities along the coastlines of southern
China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. A regional hydrodynamic
model is configured to simulate 10 000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone
activity, representative of a past/present (1980–2017) and high-emission-scenario future (2015–2050) period. Results show that extreme storm surges, and therefore total water levels, will increase substantially in the coming decades, driven by an increase in the frequency of intense tropical
cyclones. Storm surges along the southern Chinese and northern and southern Vietnamese
coastlines increase by up to 1 m, significantly larger than expected changes in mean sea-level rise over the same period. The length of coastline that is presently exposed to storm surge levels of 2.5 m or greater will more than double by 2050. Sections of Cambodian, Thai, and Malaysian coastlines are projected to experience storm surges (at higher return periods) in the
future, not previously seen, due to a southward shift in tropical cyclone
tracks. Given these findings, coastal flood management and adaptation in
these areas should be reviewed for their resilience against future extreme
sea levels.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:02:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e203aca8b2fb49898b47546def7f5a87 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:02:24Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-e203aca8b2fb49898b47546def7f5a872023-07-13T06:31:12ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812023-07-01232475250410.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea regionM. Wood0I. D. Haigh1Q. Q. Le2H. N. Nguyen3H. B. Tran4S. E. Darby5R. Marsh6N. Skliris7J. J.-M. Hirschi8R. J. Nicholls9N. Bloemendaal10School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, UKSchool of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, UKSouthern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, VietnamSouthern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, VietnamSouthern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, VietnamSchool of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, UKSchool of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, UKSchool of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, UKNational Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UKTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UKInstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands<p>Coastal floods, driven by extreme sea levels, are one of the most dangerous natural hazards. The people at highest risk are those living in low-lying coastal areas exposed to tropical-cyclone-forced storm surges. Here we apply a novel modelling framework to estimate past and/or present and future storm-surge-level and extreme-sea-level probabilities along the coastlines of southern China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. A regional hydrodynamic model is configured to simulate 10 000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone activity, representative of a past/present (1980–2017) and high-emission-scenario future (2015–2050) period. Results show that extreme storm surges, and therefore total water levels, will increase substantially in the coming decades, driven by an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones. Storm surges along the southern Chinese and northern and southern Vietnamese coastlines increase by up to 1 m, significantly larger than expected changes in mean sea-level rise over the same period. The length of coastline that is presently exposed to storm surge levels of 2.5 m or greater will more than double by 2050. Sections of Cambodian, Thai, and Malaysian coastlines are projected to experience storm surges (at higher return periods) in the future, not previously seen, due to a southward shift in tropical cyclone tracks. Given these findings, coastal flood management and adaptation in these areas should be reviewed for their resilience against future extreme sea levels.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/2475/2023/nhess-23-2475-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. Wood I. D. Haigh Q. Q. Le H. N. Nguyen H. B. Tran S. E. Darby R. Marsh N. Skliris J. J.-M. Hirschi R. J. Nicholls N. Bloemendaal Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region |
| title_full | Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region |
| title_fullStr | Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region |
| title_short | Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region |
| title_sort | climate induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the south china sea region |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/2475/2023/nhess-23-2475-2023.pdf |
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