Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation
Predicting future conservation needs can help inform conservation management but is subject to uncertainty. We measured deforestation rates during 2015–2017 for 114 protected areas in Madagascar, linked deforestation to the status of protection according to IUCN categories I–VI, used recent deforest...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Oryx |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0030605323001175/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797246552360615936 |
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| author | Serge C. Rafanoharana F. Ollier D. Andrianambinina H. Andry Rasamuel Patrick O. Waeber Lucienne Wilmé Jörg U. Ganzhorn |
| author_facet | Serge C. Rafanoharana F. Ollier D. Andrianambinina H. Andry Rasamuel Patrick O. Waeber Lucienne Wilmé Jörg U. Ganzhorn |
| author_sort | Serge C. Rafanoharana |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Predicting future conservation needs can help inform conservation management but is subject to uncertainty. We measured deforestation rates during 2015–2017 for 114 protected areas in Madagascar, linked deforestation to the status of protection according to IUCN categories I–VI, used recent deforestation rates to extrapolate forest cover over 2017–2050 and linked the size of forest blocks to the projected persistence of lemur subpopulations. In the six IUCN categories for protected areas in Madagascar the median size of forest blocks is 9–37 km2 and median annual deforestation rates range from 0.02% in the single IUCN category III site to 0.19% in category II and 1.95% in category VI sites. In 2017, 40% of all forest blocks within protected areas were < 10 km2, and this is projected to increase to 45% in 2050. Apart from these small forest fragments, the modal site of forest blocks was 160–320 km2 in 2017, and this is projected to decrease to 80–160 km2 in 2050. The range of > 50% of all lemur species exclusively contains forest blocks of < 10 km2. The modal size of forest blocks > 10 km2 is predicted to remain at 120 km2 until 2050. Although uncertainty remains, these analyses provide hope that forest blocks within the protected areas of Madagascar will remain large enough to maintain lemur subpopulations for most species until 2050. This should allow sufficient time for the implementation of effective conservation measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T11:41:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e218ff1907a341c081520b9e7e9ccff2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0030-6053 1365-3008 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T19:44:37Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Oryx |
| spelling | doaj.art-e218ff1907a341c081520b9e7e9ccff22024-03-25T09:13:43ZengCambridge University PressOryx0030-60531365-30082024-03-015815516310.1017/S0030605323001175Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservationSerge C. Rafanoharana0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5533-2999F. Ollier D. Andrianambinina1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0435-1070H. Andry Rasamuel2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4265-0891Patrick O. Waeber3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3229-0124Lucienne Wilmé4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8344-1957Jörg U. Ganzhorn5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1395-9758World Resources Institute Africa, Antananarivo, MadagascarMadagascar National Parks, Antananarivo, MadagascarWorld Resources Institute Africa, Antananarivo, MadagascarDepartment of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences HAFL, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Zollikofen, Switzerland Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zürich, SwitzerlandWorld Resources Institute Africa, Antananarivo, Madagascar Madagascar Research and Conservation Program, Missouri Botanical Garden, Antananarivo, MadagascarUniversität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany IUCN Species Survival Commission Primate Specialist GroupPredicting future conservation needs can help inform conservation management but is subject to uncertainty. We measured deforestation rates during 2015–2017 for 114 protected areas in Madagascar, linked deforestation to the status of protection according to IUCN categories I–VI, used recent deforestation rates to extrapolate forest cover over 2017–2050 and linked the size of forest blocks to the projected persistence of lemur subpopulations. In the six IUCN categories for protected areas in Madagascar the median size of forest blocks is 9–37 km2 and median annual deforestation rates range from 0.02% in the single IUCN category III site to 0.19% in category II and 1.95% in category VI sites. In 2017, 40% of all forest blocks within protected areas were < 10 km2, and this is projected to increase to 45% in 2050. Apart from these small forest fragments, the modal site of forest blocks was 160–320 km2 in 2017, and this is projected to decrease to 80–160 km2 in 2050. The range of > 50% of all lemur species exclusively contains forest blocks of < 10 km2. The modal size of forest blocks > 10 km2 is predicted to remain at 120 km2 until 2050. Although uncertainty remains, these analyses provide hope that forest blocks within the protected areas of Madagascar will remain large enough to maintain lemur subpopulations for most species until 2050. This should allow sufficient time for the implementation of effective conservation measures.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0030605323001175/type/journal_articleBiodiversitydeforestationforest changeIUCN protected area categorylemurMadagascarprimate conservationviable population |
| spellingShingle | Serge C. Rafanoharana F. Ollier D. Andrianambinina H. Andry Rasamuel Patrick O. Waeber Lucienne Wilmé Jörg U. Ganzhorn Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation Oryx Biodiversity deforestation forest change IUCN protected area category lemur Madagascar primate conservation viable population |
| title | Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation |
| title_full | Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation |
| title_fullStr | Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation |
| title_short | Projecting forest cover in Madagascar's protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation |
| title_sort | projecting forest cover in madagascar s protected areas to 2050 and its implications for lemur conservation |
| topic | Biodiversity deforestation forest change IUCN protected area category lemur Madagascar primate conservation viable population |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0030605323001175/type/journal_article |
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