The Dragon Menace: Is China Displacing Mexico's trade with the United States?
The most common statistic used in order to prove China's negative impact on Mexico's trade with the US is the share of US imports precedent from Mexico exporters. This approach suggests that China's expansion in the US market negatively correlates with the growth of the Mexican export...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana
2009-01-01
|
| Series: | Análisis Económico |
| Online Access: | http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=41311453015 |
| _version_ | 1797284116155072512 |
|---|---|
| author | Edgardo Arturo Ayala Mario Villarreal |
| author_facet | Edgardo Arturo Ayala Mario Villarreal |
| author_sort | Edgardo Arturo Ayala |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The most common statistic used in order to prove China's negative impact on Mexico's trade with the US is the share of US imports precedent from Mexico exporters. This approach suggests that China's expansion in the US market negatively correlates with the growth of the Mexican exports. However, and contrary to conventional wisdom and the ad-hoc shift share approach, our analysis suggest that: 1) even when China displacement effect is not minor, the China expansion in the US market explains at the most one third of the decline in the rate of growth of the Mexican exports to that nation; 2) contradicting the shift share approach that target almost half of the Mexican sectors under the China threat, we localized that almost all the displacement (95 percent) occurred in two sectors, textiles and machinery; and 3) two thirds of the employment losses in the textile industry are explained by long run
factors, such as technology, and just one third is due to China's growth in the US market. Moreover, we suggest that the potential for economic gains for Mexico, due to China's economic growth, can offset short-term negative shocks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T17:44:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e2489b53e6174e269fd86120ea708e1e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0185-3937 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T17:44:20Z |
| publishDate | 2009-01-01 |
| publisher | Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Análisis Económico |
| spelling | doaj.art-e2489b53e6174e269fd86120ea708e1e2024-03-02T15:34:39ZengUniversidad Autónoma MetropolitanaAnálisis Económico0185-39372009-01-012455327346The Dragon Menace: Is China Displacing Mexico's trade with the United States?Edgardo Arturo AyalaMario VillarrealThe most common statistic used in order to prove China's negative impact on Mexico's trade with the US is the share of US imports precedent from Mexico exporters. This approach suggests that China's expansion in the US market negatively correlates with the growth of the Mexican exports. However, and contrary to conventional wisdom and the ad-hoc shift share approach, our analysis suggest that: 1) even when China displacement effect is not minor, the China expansion in the US market explains at the most one third of the decline in the rate of growth of the Mexican exports to that nation; 2) contradicting the shift share approach that target almost half of the Mexican sectors under the China threat, we localized that almost all the displacement (95 percent) occurred in two sectors, textiles and machinery; and 3) two thirds of the employment losses in the textile industry are explained by long run factors, such as technology, and just one third is due to China's growth in the US market. Moreover, we suggest that the potential for economic gains for Mexico, due to China's economic growth, can offset short-term negative shocks.http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=41311453015 |
| spellingShingle | Edgardo Arturo Ayala Mario Villarreal The Dragon Menace: Is China Displacing Mexico's trade with the United States? Análisis Económico |
| title | The Dragon Menace: Is China Displacing Mexico's trade with the United States? |
| title_full | The Dragon Menace: Is China Displacing Mexico's trade with the United States? |
| title_fullStr | The Dragon Menace: Is China Displacing Mexico's trade with the United States? |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Dragon Menace: Is China Displacing Mexico's trade with the United States? |
| title_short | The Dragon Menace: Is China Displacing Mexico's trade with the United States? |
| title_sort | dragon menace is china displacing mexico s trade with the united states |
| url | http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=41311453015 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT edgardoarturoayala thedragonmenaceischinadisplacingmexicostradewiththeunitedstates AT mariovillarreal thedragonmenaceischinadisplacingmexicostradewiththeunitedstates AT edgardoarturoayala dragonmenaceischinadisplacingmexicostradewiththeunitedstates AT mariovillarreal dragonmenaceischinadisplacingmexicostradewiththeunitedstates |