Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods
Spatially dense observations of gust speeds are necessary for various applications, but their availability is limited in space and time. This work presents an approach to help to overcome this problem. The main objective is the generation of synthetic wind gust velocities. With this aim, theoretical...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Stockholm University Press
2014-04-01
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| Series: | Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/download/22905/pdf_1 |
| _version_ | 1811302398860197888 |
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| author | Larisa S. Seregina Rabea Haas Kai Born Joaquim G. Pinto |
| author_facet | Larisa S. Seregina Rabea Haas Kai Born Joaquim G. Pinto |
| author_sort | Larisa S. Seregina |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Spatially dense observations of gust speeds are necessary for various applications, but their availability is limited in space and time. This work presents an approach to help to overcome this problem. The main objective is the generation of synthetic wind gust velocities. With this aim, theoretical wind and gust distributions are estimated from 10 yr of hourly observations collected at 123 synoptic weather stations provided by the German Weather Service. As pre-processing, an exposure correction is applied on measurements of the mean wind velocity to reduce the influence of local urban and topographic effects. The wind gust model is built as a transfer function between distribution parameters of wind and gust velocities. The aim of this procedure is to estimate the parameters of gusts at stations where only wind speed data is available. These parameters can be used to generate synthetic gusts, which can improve the accuracy of return periods at test sites with a lack of observations. The second objective is to determine return periods much longer than the nominal length of the original time series by considering extreme value statistics. Estimates for both local maximum return periods and average return periods for single historical events are provided. The comparison of maximum and average return periods shows that even storms with short average return periods may lead to local wind gusts with return periods of several decades. Despite uncertainties caused by the short length of the observational records, the method leads to consistent results, enabling a wide range of possible applications. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T07:28:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e25d202f7f054a0caee13508fa1ef090 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1600-0870 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T07:28:34Z |
| publishDate | 2014-04-01 |
| publisher | Stockholm University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
| spelling | doaj.art-e25d202f7f054a0caee13508fa1ef0902022-12-22T02:56:26ZengStockholm University PressTellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography1600-08702014-04-0166011510.3402/tellusa.v66.2290522905Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periodsLarisa S. Seregina0Rabea Haas1Kai Born2Joaquim G. Pinto3 Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, GermanySpatially dense observations of gust speeds are necessary for various applications, but their availability is limited in space and time. This work presents an approach to help to overcome this problem. The main objective is the generation of synthetic wind gust velocities. With this aim, theoretical wind and gust distributions are estimated from 10 yr of hourly observations collected at 123 synoptic weather stations provided by the German Weather Service. As pre-processing, an exposure correction is applied on measurements of the mean wind velocity to reduce the influence of local urban and topographic effects. The wind gust model is built as a transfer function between distribution parameters of wind and gust velocities. The aim of this procedure is to estimate the parameters of gusts at stations where only wind speed data is available. These parameters can be used to generate synthetic gusts, which can improve the accuracy of return periods at test sites with a lack of observations. The second objective is to determine return periods much longer than the nominal length of the original time series by considering extreme value statistics. Estimates for both local maximum return periods and average return periods for single historical events are provided. The comparison of maximum and average return periods shows that even storms with short average return periods may lead to local wind gusts with return periods of several decades. Despite uncertainties caused by the short length of the observational records, the method leads to consistent results, enabling a wide range of possible applications.http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/download/22905/pdf_1windgustsextreme value statisticsreturn periodswindstormobservations |
| spellingShingle | Larisa S. Seregina Rabea Haas Kai Born Joaquim G. Pinto Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography wind gusts extreme value statistics return periods windstorm observations |
| title | Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods |
| title_full | Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods |
| title_fullStr | Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods |
| title_short | Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods |
| title_sort | development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods |
| topic | wind gusts extreme value statistics return periods windstorm observations |
| url | http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/download/22905/pdf_1 |
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