Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean.
Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have exp...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2013-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3749108?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818107692211765248 |
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| author | Simeon L Hill Tony Phillips Angus Atkinson |
| author_facet | Simeon L Hill Tony Phillips Angus Atkinson |
| author_sort | Simeon L Hill |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21(st) century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T02:03:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e29f60a933ac493bb4416d8f94572855 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T02:03:30Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-e29f60a933ac493bb4416d8f945728552022-12-22T01:24:27ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032013-01-0188e7224610.1371/journal.pone.0072246Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean.Simeon L HillTony PhillipsAngus AtkinsonAntarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21(st) century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3749108?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Simeon L Hill Tony Phillips Angus Atkinson Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean. PLoS ONE |
| title | Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean. |
| title_full | Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean. |
| title_fullStr | Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean. |
| title_short | Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean. |
| title_sort | potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3749108?pdf=render |
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