Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin
The increased seasonal demand for water puts pressure on Mediterranean water resources, which are often exploited in a non-renewable way. Besides, climate change can alter hydroclimatic patterns and exaggerate freshwater stress. Flexible operation of existing water reservoirs is one of the most cost...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000687 |
| _version_ | 1797450946872082432 |
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| author | Nicola Crippa Manolis G. Grillakis Athanasios Tsilimigkras Guang Yang Matteo Giuliani Aristeidis G. Koutroulis |
| author_facet | Nicola Crippa Manolis G. Grillakis Athanasios Tsilimigkras Guang Yang Matteo Giuliani Aristeidis G. Koutroulis |
| author_sort | Nicola Crippa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The increased seasonal demand for water puts pressure on Mediterranean water resources, which are often exploited in a non-renewable way. Besides, climate change can alter hydroclimatic patterns and exaggerate freshwater stress. Flexible operation of existing water reservoirs is one of the most cost-effective ways to mitigate water-related stress by storing water when it is abundant and releasing it when droughts persist. In this context, hydroclimatic forecasts can be central in properly informing reservoir operation. Nevertheless, the link between forecast skill and forecast value is neither easily predictable nor necessarily positive. Each system requires specific forecasts according to its characteristics, and the skill of existing forecast systems does not necessarily translate into a significant gain in system performance. In this work, we develop downscaled seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow for the Faneromeni irrigation dam on Crete island. We then quantify the value of these seasonal forecasts in informing the reservoir operations. While the current operation of this reservoir is based on the available storage at the beginning of the irrigation season, we investigate alternatives by using the Evolutionary Multi Objectives Direct Policy Search method, which allows the design of flexible rules to cope with the variability of the hydrologic conditions as well as to include forecast information for conditioning operational decisions. Under historical climate conditions, results demonstrate a notable enhancement in performance solely by implementing more flexible operating policies. Incorporating perfect forecasts results in an additional improvement of 4% on average throughout the period from 1993 to 2019. However, when using actual forecasts, this gain diminishes to 1%. These outcomes support the exploration of potential trade-off solutions that effectively balance the competing demands within the region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:46:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e2c5e0101e764ea2a76688cb67394f63 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:46:55Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-e2c5e0101e764ea2a76688cb67394f632023-11-27T04:14:54ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072023-12-0132100406Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basinNicola Crippa0Manolis G. Grillakis1Athanasios Tsilimigkras2Guang Yang3Matteo Giuliani4Aristeidis G. Koutroulis5Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, ItalySchool of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, GreeceSchool of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, GreeceDepartment of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, ItalyDepartment of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, ItalySchool of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece; Corresponding author.The increased seasonal demand for water puts pressure on Mediterranean water resources, which are often exploited in a non-renewable way. Besides, climate change can alter hydroclimatic patterns and exaggerate freshwater stress. Flexible operation of existing water reservoirs is one of the most cost-effective ways to mitigate water-related stress by storing water when it is abundant and releasing it when droughts persist. In this context, hydroclimatic forecasts can be central in properly informing reservoir operation. Nevertheless, the link between forecast skill and forecast value is neither easily predictable nor necessarily positive. Each system requires specific forecasts according to its characteristics, and the skill of existing forecast systems does not necessarily translate into a significant gain in system performance. In this work, we develop downscaled seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow for the Faneromeni irrigation dam on Crete island. We then quantify the value of these seasonal forecasts in informing the reservoir operations. While the current operation of this reservoir is based on the available storage at the beginning of the irrigation season, we investigate alternatives by using the Evolutionary Multi Objectives Direct Policy Search method, which allows the design of flexible rules to cope with the variability of the hydrologic conditions as well as to include forecast information for conditioning operational decisions. Under historical climate conditions, results demonstrate a notable enhancement in performance solely by implementing more flexible operating policies. Incorporating perfect forecasts results in an additional improvement of 4% on average throughout the period from 1993 to 2019. However, when using actual forecasts, this gain diminishes to 1%. These outcomes support the exploration of potential trade-off solutions that effectively balance the competing demands within the region.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000687Water resourcesReservoir operationSeasonal forecastDrought management |
| spellingShingle | Nicola Crippa Manolis G. Grillakis Athanasios Tsilimigkras Guang Yang Matteo Giuliani Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin Climate Services Water resources Reservoir operation Seasonal forecast Drought management |
| title | Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin |
| title_full | Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin |
| title_short | Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin |
| title_sort | seasonal forecast informed reservoir operation potential benefits for a water stressed mediterranean basin |
| topic | Water resources Reservoir operation Seasonal forecast Drought management |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000687 |
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