Fundamental Framework to Plan 4D Robust Descent Trajectories for Uncertainties in Weather Prediction
Aircraft trajectory planning is affected by various uncertainties. Among them, those in weather prediction have a large impact on the aircraft dynamics. Trajectory planning that assumes a deterministic weather scenario can cause significant performance degradation and constraint violation if the act...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Aerospace |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/9/2/109 |
| _version_ | 1797483897643073536 |
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| author | Shumpei Kamo Judith Rosenow Hartmut Fricke Manuel Soler |
| author_facet | Shumpei Kamo Judith Rosenow Hartmut Fricke Manuel Soler |
| author_sort | Shumpei Kamo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Aircraft trajectory planning is affected by various uncertainties. Among them, those in weather prediction have a large impact on the aircraft dynamics. Trajectory planning that assumes a deterministic weather scenario can cause significant performance degradation and constraint violation if the actual weather conditions are significantly different from the assumed ones. The present study proposes a fundamental framework to plan four-dimensional optimal descent trajectories that are robust against uncertainties in weather-prediction data. To model the nature of the uncertainties, we utilize the Global Ensemble Forecast System, which provides a set of weather scenarios, also referred to as members. A robust trajectory planning problem is constructed based on the robust optimal control theory, which simultaneously considers a set of trajectories for each of the weather scenarios while minimizing the expected value of the overall operational costs. We validate the proposed planning algorithm with a numerical simulation, assuming an arrival route to Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany. Comparison between the robust and the inappropriately-controlled trajectories shows the proposed robust planning strategy can prevent deteriorated costs and infeasible trajectories that violate operational constraints. The simulation results also confirm that the planning can deal with a wide range of cost-index and required-time-of-arrival settings, which help the operators to determine the best values for these parameters. The framework we propose is in a generic form, and therefore it can be applied to a wide range of scenario settings. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:54:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e2f2bb802fa04391a599736b0c25ffee |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2226-4310 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:54:41Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Aerospace |
| spelling | doaj.art-e2f2bb802fa04391a599736b0c25ffee2023-11-23T18:14:51ZengMDPI AGAerospace2226-43102022-02-019210910.3390/aerospace9020109Fundamental Framework to Plan 4D Robust Descent Trajectories for Uncertainties in Weather PredictionShumpei Kamo0Judith Rosenow1Hartmut Fricke2Manuel Soler3Chair of Air Transport Technology and Logistics, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069 Dresden, GermanyChair of Air Transport Technology and Logistics, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069 Dresden, GermanyChair of Air Transport Technology and Logistics, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069 Dresden, GermanyDepartment of Bioengineering and Aerospace Engineering, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganés, SpainAircraft trajectory planning is affected by various uncertainties. Among them, those in weather prediction have a large impact on the aircraft dynamics. Trajectory planning that assumes a deterministic weather scenario can cause significant performance degradation and constraint violation if the actual weather conditions are significantly different from the assumed ones. The present study proposes a fundamental framework to plan four-dimensional optimal descent trajectories that are robust against uncertainties in weather-prediction data. To model the nature of the uncertainties, we utilize the Global Ensemble Forecast System, which provides a set of weather scenarios, also referred to as members. A robust trajectory planning problem is constructed based on the robust optimal control theory, which simultaneously considers a set of trajectories for each of the weather scenarios while minimizing the expected value of the overall operational costs. We validate the proposed planning algorithm with a numerical simulation, assuming an arrival route to Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany. Comparison between the robust and the inappropriately-controlled trajectories shows the proposed robust planning strategy can prevent deteriorated costs and infeasible trajectories that violate operational constraints. The simulation results also confirm that the planning can deal with a wide range of cost-index and required-time-of-arrival settings, which help the operators to determine the best values for these parameters. The framework we propose is in a generic form, and therefore it can be applied to a wide range of scenario settings.https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/9/2/109robust aircraft trajectory optimizationrobust optimal control4D trajectoryoptimal descentcontinuous descent operationsGlobal Ensemble Forecast System |
| spellingShingle | Shumpei Kamo Judith Rosenow Hartmut Fricke Manuel Soler Fundamental Framework to Plan 4D Robust Descent Trajectories for Uncertainties in Weather Prediction Aerospace robust aircraft trajectory optimization robust optimal control 4D trajectory optimal descent continuous descent operations Global Ensemble Forecast System |
| title | Fundamental Framework to Plan 4D Robust Descent Trajectories for Uncertainties in Weather Prediction |
| title_full | Fundamental Framework to Plan 4D Robust Descent Trajectories for Uncertainties in Weather Prediction |
| title_fullStr | Fundamental Framework to Plan 4D Robust Descent Trajectories for Uncertainties in Weather Prediction |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fundamental Framework to Plan 4D Robust Descent Trajectories for Uncertainties in Weather Prediction |
| title_short | Fundamental Framework to Plan 4D Robust Descent Trajectories for Uncertainties in Weather Prediction |
| title_sort | fundamental framework to plan 4d robust descent trajectories for uncertainties in weather prediction |
| topic | robust aircraft trajectory optimization robust optimal control 4D trajectory optimal descent continuous descent operations Global Ensemble Forecast System |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/9/2/109 |
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