Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes
The occurrence of extreme climate events in the coming years is modulated by both global warming and internal climate variability. Anticipating changes in frequency and intensity of such events in advance may help minimize the impact on climate-vulnerable sectors and society. Decadal climate predict...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1 |
| _version_ | 1827869880540463104 |
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| author | Carlos Delgado-Torres Markus G Donat Albert Soret Nube González-Reviriego Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière An-Chi Ho Núria Pérez-Zanón Margarida Samsó Cabré Francisco J Doblas-Reyes |
| author_facet | Carlos Delgado-Torres Markus G Donat Albert Soret Nube González-Reviriego Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière An-Chi Ho Núria Pérez-Zanón Margarida Samsó Cabré Francisco J Doblas-Reyes |
| author_sort | Carlos Delgado-Torres |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The occurrence of extreme climate events in the coming years is modulated by both global warming and internal climate variability. Anticipating changes in frequency and intensity of such events in advance may help minimize the impact on climate-vulnerable sectors and society. Decadal climate predictions have been developed as a source of climate information relevant for decision-making at multi-annual timescales. We evaluate the multi-model forecast quality of the CMIP6 decadal hindcasts in predicting a set of indices measuring different characteristics of temperature and precipitation extremes for the forecast years 1–5. The multi-model ensemble skillfully predicts the temperature extremes over most land regions, while the skill is more limited for precipitation extremes. We further compare the prediction skill for these extreme indices to the skill for mean temperature and precipitation, finding that the extreme indices are predicted with lower skill, particularly those representing the most extreme days. We find only small and region-dependent improvements from model initialization in comparison to historical forcing simulations. This systematic evaluation of decadal hindcasts is essential when providing a climate service based on decadal predictions so that the user is informed on the trustworthiness of the forecasts for each specific region and extreme event. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e3032b0990c24ffd876b36fa04e54d85 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-e3032b0990c24ffd876b36fa04e54d852023-08-09T15:14:32ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118303403110.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremesCarlos Delgado-Torres0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1737-4212Markus G Donat1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0608-7288Albert Soret2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1962-2972Nube González-Reviriego3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5919-6701Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3066-6685An-Chi Ho5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4182-5258Núria Pérez-Zanón6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8568-3071Margarida Samsó Cabré7https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2868-2755Francisco J Doblas-Reyes8https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6622-4280Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, Spain; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, Spain; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA) , Barcelona, SpainThe occurrence of extreme climate events in the coming years is modulated by both global warming and internal climate variability. Anticipating changes in frequency and intensity of such events in advance may help minimize the impact on climate-vulnerable sectors and society. Decadal climate predictions have been developed as a source of climate information relevant for decision-making at multi-annual timescales. We evaluate the multi-model forecast quality of the CMIP6 decadal hindcasts in predicting a set of indices measuring different characteristics of temperature and precipitation extremes for the forecast years 1–5. The multi-model ensemble skillfully predicts the temperature extremes over most land regions, while the skill is more limited for precipitation extremes. We further compare the prediction skill for these extreme indices to the skill for mean temperature and precipitation, finding that the extreme indices are predicted with lower skill, particularly those representing the most extreme days. We find only small and region-dependent improvements from model initialization in comparison to historical forcing simulations. This systematic evaluation of decadal hindcasts is essential when providing a climate service based on decadal predictions so that the user is informed on the trustworthiness of the forecasts for each specific region and extreme event.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1decadal climate predictionsextreme climate eventsforecast quality assessmentCMIP6 multi-model ensembleimpact of model initialization |
| spellingShingle | Carlos Delgado-Torres Markus G Donat Albert Soret Nube González-Reviriego Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière An-Chi Ho Núria Pérez-Zanón Margarida Samsó Cabré Francisco J Doblas-Reyes Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes Environmental Research Letters decadal climate predictions extreme climate events forecast quality assessment CMIP6 multi-model ensemble impact of model initialization |
| title | Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes |
| title_full | Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes |
| title_fullStr | Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes |
| title_short | Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes |
| title_sort | multi annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes |
| topic | decadal climate predictions extreme climate events forecast quality assessment CMIP6 multi-model ensemble impact of model initialization |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1 |
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