Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River
Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/709/2018/hess-22-709-2018.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811309025270169600 |
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| author | K. E. Bennett T. J. Bohn T. J. Bohn K. Solander N. G. McDowell N. G. McDowell C. Xu E. Vivoni E. Vivoni R. S. Middleton |
| author_facet | K. E. Bennett T. J. Bohn T. J. Bohn K. Solander N. G. McDowell N. G. McDowell C. Xu E. Vivoni E. Vivoni R. S. Middleton |
| author_sort | K. E. Bennett |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the
southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional
water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate
change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and
none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest
disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River,
the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency
0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates
of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future
disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications
for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with
conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase
streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the
coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than
those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones
of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly
signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related
to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of
mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low
water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River
basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land
cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact
of climate change on water resources. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:33:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e40e15a8fa284c909c24b18dec063733 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:33:53Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-e40e15a8fa284c909c24b18dec0637332022-12-22T02:52:09ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382018-01-012270972510.5194/hess-22-709-2018Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado RiverK. E. Bennett0T. J. Bohn1T. J. Bohn2K. Solander3N. G. McDowell4N. G. McDowell5C. Xu6E. Vivoni7E. Vivoni8R. S. Middleton9Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USAJulie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USASchool of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USAEarth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USAEarth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USAcurrent address: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354, USAEarth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USASchool of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USASchool of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USAEarth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USAAccelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/709/2018/hess-22-709-2018.pdf |
| spellingShingle | K. E. Bennett T. J. Bohn T. J. Bohn K. Solander N. G. McDowell N. G. McDowell C. Xu E. Vivoni E. Vivoni R. S. Middleton Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River |
| title_full | Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River |
| title_fullStr | Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River |
| title_short | Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River |
| title_sort | climate driven disturbances in the san juan river sub basin of the colorado river |
| url | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/709/2018/hess-22-709-2018.pdf |
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