A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks
Comparing risks among pesticides has substantial utility for decision makers. However, if rating schemes to compare risks are to be used, they must be conceptually and mathematically sound. We address limitations with pesticide risk rating schemes by examining in particular the Environmental Impact...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
PeerJ Inc.
2014-04-01
|
| Series: | PeerJ |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/364.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797419117443022848 |
|---|---|
| author | Robert K.D. Peterson Jerome J. Schleier III |
| author_facet | Robert K.D. Peterson Jerome J. Schleier III |
| author_sort | Robert K.D. Peterson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Comparing risks among pesticides has substantial utility for decision makers. However, if rating schemes to compare risks are to be used, they must be conceptually and mathematically sound. We address limitations with pesticide risk rating schemes by examining in particular the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) using, for the first time, a probabilistic analytic technique. To demonstrate the consequences of mapping discrete risk ratings to probabilities, adjusted EIQs were calculated for a group of 20 insecticides in four chemical classes. Using Monte Carlo simulation, adjusted EIQs were determined under different hypothetical scenarios by incorporating probability ranges. The analysis revealed that pesticides that have different EIQs, and therefore different putative environmental effects, actually may be no different when incorporating uncertainty. The EIQ equation cannot take into account uncertainty the way that it is structured and provide reliable quotients of pesticide impact. The EIQ also is inconsistent with the accepted notion of risk as a joint probability of toxicity and exposure. Therefore, our results suggest that the EIQ and other similar schemes be discontinued in favor of conceptually sound schemes to estimate risk that rely on proper integration of toxicity and exposure information. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:43:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e423251a8e6543ed97db3e2c1884b62d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:43:49Z |
| publishDate | 2014-04-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PeerJ |
| spelling | doaj.art-e423251a8e6543ed97db3e2c1884b62d2023-12-03T10:43:14ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592014-04-012e36410.7717/peerj.364364A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risksRobert K.D. Peterson0Jerome J. Schleier III1Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USADepartment of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USAComparing risks among pesticides has substantial utility for decision makers. However, if rating schemes to compare risks are to be used, they must be conceptually and mathematically sound. We address limitations with pesticide risk rating schemes by examining in particular the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) using, for the first time, a probabilistic analytic technique. To demonstrate the consequences of mapping discrete risk ratings to probabilities, adjusted EIQs were calculated for a group of 20 insecticides in four chemical classes. Using Monte Carlo simulation, adjusted EIQs were determined under different hypothetical scenarios by incorporating probability ranges. The analysis revealed that pesticides that have different EIQs, and therefore different putative environmental effects, actually may be no different when incorporating uncertainty. The EIQ equation cannot take into account uncertainty the way that it is structured and provide reliable quotients of pesticide impact. The EIQ also is inconsistent with the accepted notion of risk as a joint probability of toxicity and exposure. Therefore, our results suggest that the EIQ and other similar schemes be discontinued in favor of conceptually sound schemes to estimate risk that rely on proper integration of toxicity and exposure information.https://peerj.com/articles/364.pdfRisk rankingIntegrated pest managementComparative risk assessmentExposure assessmentRisk analysisPesticide |
| spellingShingle | Robert K.D. Peterson Jerome J. Schleier III A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks PeerJ Risk ranking Integrated pest management Comparative risk assessment Exposure assessment Risk analysis Pesticide |
| title | A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks |
| title_full | A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks |
| title_fullStr | A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks |
| title_full_unstemmed | A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks |
| title_short | A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks |
| title_sort | probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks |
| topic | Risk ranking Integrated pest management Comparative risk assessment Exposure assessment Risk analysis Pesticide |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/364.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT robertkdpeterson aprobabilisticanalysisrevealsfundamentallimitationswiththeenvironmentalimpactquotientandsimilarsystemsforratingpesticiderisks AT jeromejschleieriii aprobabilisticanalysisrevealsfundamentallimitationswiththeenvironmentalimpactquotientandsimilarsystemsforratingpesticiderisks AT robertkdpeterson probabilisticanalysisrevealsfundamentallimitationswiththeenvironmentalimpactquotientandsimilarsystemsforratingpesticiderisks AT jeromejschleieriii probabilisticanalysisrevealsfundamentallimitationswiththeenvironmentalimpactquotientandsimilarsystemsforratingpesticiderisks |