Climate change impacts on the streamflow in Spanish basins monitored under near-natural conditions
Study region: This study is focused on 12 basins in mainland Spain where monthly series longer than 30 years of near-natural streamflow measurements are available. It covers areas with different climate conditions. Study focus: The potential impact of future climate change scenarios on water resourc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182100166X |
| _version_ | 1818701098463002624 |
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| author | D. Pulido-Velazquez A.J. Collados-Lara J. Pérez-Sánchez Francisco José Segura-Méndez J. Senent-Aparicio |
| author_facet | D. Pulido-Velazquez A.J. Collados-Lara J. Pérez-Sánchez Francisco José Segura-Méndez J. Senent-Aparicio |
| author_sort | D. Pulido-Velazquez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: This study is focused on 12 basins in mainland Spain where monthly series longer than 30 years of near-natural streamflow measurements are available. It covers areas with different climate conditions. Study focus: The potential impact of future climate change scenarios on water resources in the Spanish basins is studied. It takes into account uncertainties in the estimation of local climate conditions, and the propagation of the impact due to the structural uncertainties related with the adopted conceptual-numerical approach. Local climate scenarios are derived from available Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations after statistical downscaling. The future scenarios have been generated assuming two hypotheses of future warming for two basins in mainland Spain: 1.5ºC and 3ºC. In each of these basins, the local climate scenarios have been propagated by using 4 hydrological models, with sufficient capacity to reproduce the historical dynamic, providing values of above 5 in a 0–9 range for the grading method used. New hydrological insights: The results show a significant spatial heterogeneity of the impact of climate change on the mean streamflow in Spanish basins. The highest reductions of flow appear in the wetter northern basins. The seasonality of the impact is also significant, with the highest reductions during autumn, and the smallest changes in the summer months. Finally, the highest uncertainties in this climate change impact assessment are due to the RCM projections, with the influence of the hydrological models being significantly smaller. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T15:15:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e426ab6cb4dc4c70b837ac433c316741 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T15:15:26Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-e426ab6cb4dc4c70b837ac433c3167412022-12-21T21:43:33ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182021-12-0138100937Climate change impacts on the streamflow in Spanish basins monitored under near-natural conditionsD. Pulido-Velazquez0A.J. Collados-Lara1J. Pérez-Sánchez2Francisco José Segura-Méndez3J. Senent-Aparicio4Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME, CSIC), Urb.Alcázar del Genil, 4. Edificio Zulema, Bajo, 18006 Granada, Spain; Corresponding author.Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME, CSIC), Urb.Alcázar del Genil, 4. Edificio Zulema, Bajo, 18006 Granada, SpainDepartment of Civil Engineering, Catholic University of San Antonio (UCAM), Campus de los Jerónimos s/n, 30107 Guadalupe, Murcia, Spain; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (ULPGC), Campus de Tafira, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, SpainDepartment of Civil Engineering, Catholic University of San Antonio (UCAM), Campus de los Jerónimos s/n, 30107 Guadalupe, Murcia, SpainDepartment of Civil Engineering, Catholic University of San Antonio (UCAM), Campus de los Jerónimos s/n, 30107 Guadalupe, Murcia, SpainStudy region: This study is focused on 12 basins in mainland Spain where monthly series longer than 30 years of near-natural streamflow measurements are available. It covers areas with different climate conditions. Study focus: The potential impact of future climate change scenarios on water resources in the Spanish basins is studied. It takes into account uncertainties in the estimation of local climate conditions, and the propagation of the impact due to the structural uncertainties related with the adopted conceptual-numerical approach. Local climate scenarios are derived from available Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations after statistical downscaling. The future scenarios have been generated assuming two hypotheses of future warming for two basins in mainland Spain: 1.5ºC and 3ºC. In each of these basins, the local climate scenarios have been propagated by using 4 hydrological models, with sufficient capacity to reproduce the historical dynamic, providing values of above 5 in a 0–9 range for the grading method used. New hydrological insights: The results show a significant spatial heterogeneity of the impact of climate change on the mean streamflow in Spanish basins. The highest reductions of flow appear in the wetter northern basins. The seasonality of the impact is also significant, with the highest reductions during autumn, and the smallest changes in the summer months. Finally, the highest uncertainties in this climate change impact assessment are due to the RCM projections, with the influence of the hydrological models being significantly smaller.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182100166XClimate change impact on Spanish basinsNear-natural conditionsHydrological balance modelsUncertaintiesWater resourcesAridity |
| spellingShingle | D. Pulido-Velazquez A.J. Collados-Lara J. Pérez-Sánchez Francisco José Segura-Méndez J. Senent-Aparicio Climate change impacts on the streamflow in Spanish basins monitored under near-natural conditions Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Climate change impact on Spanish basins Near-natural conditions Hydrological balance models Uncertainties Water resources Aridity |
| title | Climate change impacts on the streamflow in Spanish basins monitored under near-natural conditions |
| title_full | Climate change impacts on the streamflow in Spanish basins monitored under near-natural conditions |
| title_fullStr | Climate change impacts on the streamflow in Spanish basins monitored under near-natural conditions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change impacts on the streamflow in Spanish basins monitored under near-natural conditions |
| title_short | Climate change impacts on the streamflow in Spanish basins monitored under near-natural conditions |
| title_sort | climate change impacts on the streamflow in spanish basins monitored under near natural conditions |
| topic | Climate change impact on Spanish basins Near-natural conditions Hydrological balance models Uncertainties Water resources Aridity |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182100166X |
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