Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions
Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection exported from mainland China could lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other countries. By February 2020, several countries were reporting imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. To contain the virus, early detection of imported SARS...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0250_article |
| _version_ | 1818126483135135744 |
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| author | Pablo Martinez De Salazar René Niehus Aimee Taylor Caroline O’Flaherty Buckee Marc Lipsitch |
| author_facet | Pablo Martinez De Salazar René Niehus Aimee Taylor Caroline O’Flaherty Buckee Marc Lipsitch |
| author_sort | Pablo Martinez De Salazar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection exported from mainland China could lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other countries. By February 2020, several countries were reporting imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. To contain the virus, early detection of imported SARS-CoV-2 cases is critical. We used air travel volume estimates from Wuhan, China, to international destinations and a generalized linear regression model to identify locations that could have undetected imported cases. Our model can be adjusted to account for exportation of cases from other locations as the virus spreads and more information on importations and transmission becomes available. Early detection and appropriate control measures can reduce the risk for transmission in all locations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T07:02:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e4322953ab4c482f93f6892d23aef2b3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T07:02:10Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-e4322953ab4c482f93f6892d23aef2b32022-12-22T01:16:36ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592020-07-012671465146910.3201/eid2607.200250Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation PredictionsPablo Martinez De SalazarRené NiehusAimee TaylorCaroline O’Flaherty BuckeeMarc LipsitchCases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection exported from mainland China could lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other countries. By February 2020, several countries were reporting imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. To contain the virus, early detection of imported SARS-CoV-2 cases is critical. We used air travel volume estimates from Wuhan, China, to international destinations and a generalized linear regression model to identify locations that could have undetected imported cases. Our model can be adjusted to account for exportation of cases from other locations as the virus spreads and more information on importations and transmission becomes available. Early detection and appropriate control measures can reduce the risk for transmission in all locations.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0250_articleoutbreakcoronavirusrespiratory diseasesCOVID-19travelers healthpneumonia |
| spellingShingle | Pablo Martinez De Salazar René Niehus Aimee Taylor Caroline O’Flaherty Buckee Marc Lipsitch Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions Emerging Infectious Diseases outbreak coronavirus respiratory diseases COVID-19 travelers health pneumonia |
| title | Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions |
| title_full | Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions |
| title_fullStr | Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions |
| title_short | Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions |
| title_sort | identifying locations with possible undetected imported severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 cases by using importation predictions |
| topic | outbreak coronavirus respiratory diseases COVID-19 travelers health pneumonia |
| url | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0250_article |
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