Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil
Background Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. Methods We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patt...
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PeerJ Inc.
2023-02-01
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| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/14882.pdf |
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| author | Gabriela Silva Ribeiro Gonçalves Pablo Vieira Cerqueira Daniel Paiva Silva Letícia Braga Gomes Camila Ferreira Leão André Felipe Alves de Andrade Marcos Pérsio Dantas Santos |
| author_facet | Gabriela Silva Ribeiro Gonçalves Pablo Vieira Cerqueira Daniel Paiva Silva Letícia Braga Gomes Camila Ferreira Leão André Felipe Alves de Andrade Marcos Pérsio Dantas Santos |
| author_sort | Gabriela Silva Ribeiro Gonçalves |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. Methods We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species. Results We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:58:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e440dd2993e9454286a25b0432df3726 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:58:05Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PeerJ |
| spelling | doaj.art-e440dd2993e9454286a25b0432df37262023-12-03T00:52:31ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592023-02-0111e1488210.7717/peerj.14882Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, BrazilGabriela Silva Ribeiro Gonçalves0Pablo Vieira Cerqueira1Daniel Paiva Silva2Letícia Braga Gomes3Camila Ferreira Leão4André Felipe Alves de Andrade5Marcos Pérsio Dantas Santos6Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, BrazilLaboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, BrazilDepartamento de Biologia, Instituto Federal Goiano, Urutaí, Goiás, BrazilLaboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, BrazilLaboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, BrazilInstituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Goiás, BrazilLaboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, BrazilBackground Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. Methods We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species. Results We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.https://peerj.com/articles/14882.pdfClimatic stability Conservation policy Dry forest Extinctions Gap analysis Protected areas |
| spellingShingle | Gabriela Silva Ribeiro Gonçalves Pablo Vieira Cerqueira Daniel Paiva Silva Letícia Braga Gomes Camila Ferreira Leão André Felipe Alves de Andrade Marcos Pérsio Dantas Santos Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil PeerJ Climatic stability Conservation policy Dry forest Extinctions Gap analysis Protected areas |
| title | Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil |
| title_full | Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil |
| title_fullStr | Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil |
| title_short | Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil |
| title_sort | multi temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in caatinga brazil |
| topic | Climatic stability Conservation policy Dry forest Extinctions Gap analysis Protected areas |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/14882.pdf |
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