Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model
Using the standard SIR model with three unknown biological parameters, the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq has been studied. The least squares method and real data on confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries over a long time (455 days) were used to estimate these parameters. In this regards, first, we...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Results in Control and Optimization |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720723000164 |
| _version_ | 1811157906247122944 |
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| author | Sanaa L. Khalaf Hadeer S. Flayyih |
| author_facet | Sanaa L. Khalaf Hadeer S. Flayyih |
| author_sort | Sanaa L. Khalaf |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Using the standard SIR model with three unknown biological parameters, the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq has been studied. The least squares method and real data on confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries over a long time (455 days) were used to estimate these parameters. In this regards, first, we find the basic reproductive number R0is 0.9422661124 which indicates and predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq will gradually subside until it is eradicated permanently with time. Additionally, we develop an optimal vaccination strategy with the goal of reducing COVID-19 infections and preventing their spread in Iraq, thereby putting a clear picture of control this pandemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:15:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e45fd2e8649a468fb97a88f25de0f11f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-7207 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:15:24Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Results in Control and Optimization |
| spelling | doaj.art-e45fd2e8649a468fb97a88f25de0f11f2023-03-09T04:13:56ZengElsevierResults in Control and Optimization2666-72072023-03-0110100214Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR modelSanaa L. Khalaf0Hadeer S. Flayyih1Corresponding author.; Department of Mathematics, College of Science, University of Basrah, Basrah, IraqDepartment of Mathematics, College of Science, University of Basrah, Basrah, IraqUsing the standard SIR model with three unknown biological parameters, the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq has been studied. The least squares method and real data on confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries over a long time (455 days) were used to estimate these parameters. In this regards, first, we find the basic reproductive number R0is 0.9422661124 which indicates and predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq will gradually subside until it is eradicated permanently with time. Additionally, we develop an optimal vaccination strategy with the goal of reducing COVID-19 infections and preventing their spread in Iraq, thereby putting a clear picture of control this pandemic.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720723000164SIR modelCOVID-19 pandemicSensitivity analysisOptimal vaccination strategy |
| spellingShingle | Sanaa L. Khalaf Hadeer S. Flayyih Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model Results in Control and Optimization SIR model COVID-19 pandemic Sensitivity analysis Optimal vaccination strategy |
| title | Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model |
| title_full | Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model |
| title_fullStr | Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model |
| title_short | Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model |
| title_sort | analysis predicting and controlling the covid 19 pandemic in iraq through sir model |
| topic | SIR model COVID-19 pandemic Sensitivity analysis Optimal vaccination strategy |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720723000164 |
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