Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition
Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-techni...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/6/1580 |
| _version_ | 1797541572359749632 |
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| author | Jürgen Kopfmüller Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle Tobias Naegler Jens Buchgeister Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam Volker Stelzer |
| author_facet | Jürgen Kopfmüller Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle Tobias Naegler Jens Buchgeister Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam Volker Stelzer |
| author_sort | Jürgen Kopfmüller |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:17:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e4789d7b4a4b4f9cadfc4dc480ef1148 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:17:51Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-e4789d7b4a4b4f9cadfc4dc480ef11482023-11-21T10:17:51ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732021-03-01146158010.3390/en14061580Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy TransitionJürgen Kopfmüller0Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle1Tobias Naegler2Jens Buchgeister3Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam4Volker Stelzer5Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76133 Karlsruhe, GermanyCenter for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies, University of Stuttgart, 70174 Stuttgart, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute for Networked Energy Systems, 70569 Stuttgart, GermanyInstitute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76133 Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76133 Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76133 Karlsruhe, GermanyEnergy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/6/1580sustainability assessmentsocio-technical scenariosenergy system modeldecision supportintegrative assessmentcross-impact balance |
| spellingShingle | Jürgen Kopfmüller Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle Tobias Naegler Jens Buchgeister Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam Volker Stelzer Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition Energies sustainability assessment socio-technical scenarios energy system model decision support integrative assessment cross-impact balance |
| title | Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition |
| title_full | Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition |
| title_fullStr | Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition |
| title_short | Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition |
| title_sort | integrative scenario assessment as a tool to support decisions in energy transition |
| topic | sustainability assessment socio-technical scenarios energy system model decision support integrative assessment cross-impact balance |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/6/1580 |
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