Potential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from Japan’s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the HPV vaccine
Abstract In 2013, recurrent reports of diverse symptoms occurring in girls after receiving HPV vaccination appeared in Japanese media. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare quickly responded by announcing a temporary suspension of its recommendation for the vaccine. The HPV vaccination rate soon...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-73106-z |
| _version_ | 1818401951316967424 |
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| author | Asami Yagi Yutaka Ueda Satoshi Nakagawa Sayaka Ikeda Yusuke Tanaka Masayuki Sekine Etsuko Miyagi Takayuki Enomoto Tadashi Kimura |
| author_facet | Asami Yagi Yutaka Ueda Satoshi Nakagawa Sayaka Ikeda Yusuke Tanaka Masayuki Sekine Etsuko Miyagi Takayuki Enomoto Tadashi Kimura |
| author_sort | Asami Yagi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In 2013, recurrent reports of diverse symptoms occurring in girls after receiving HPV vaccination appeared in Japanese media. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare quickly responded by announcing a temporary suspension of its recommendation for the vaccine. The HPV vaccination rate soon fell to almost zero. In the present study, we calculated the potential future numbers of cervical cancer incidence and death that will be increased by this policy decision. We have assumed that the number of yearly vaccinations is evenly distributed across a daily basis. Future incidence and death increased in females born in FY2000 are estimated to be 3651 and 904, respectively, 4566 and 1130 for those born in FY2001, 4645 and 1150 for those born in FY2002, and 4657 and 1153 for those born in FY2003. In FY2020, the large increase of risks to females born in FY2004 amounts to 12.0 females per day who will now be at a higher risk for acquiring of cervical cancer in their future, and 3.0 females per day newly at risk for future death from that disease in its progressive form. No one should be able to accept this situation. We sincerely ask the government to resume its recommendation for the vaccine as soon as possible. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:00:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e488123bdef1495695337c3f5868c89d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:00:37Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-e488123bdef1495695337c3f5868c89d2022-12-21T23:10:25ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222020-09-011011710.1038/s41598-020-73106-zPotential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from Japan’s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the HPV vaccineAsami Yagi0Yutaka Ueda1Satoshi Nakagawa2Sayaka Ikeda3Yusuke Tanaka4Masayuki Sekine5Etsuko Miyagi6Takayuki Enomoto7Tadashi Kimura8Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Osaka University Graduate School of MedicineDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Osaka University Graduate School of MedicineDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Osaka University Graduate School of MedicineDepartment of Gynecology, International University of Health and Welfare Mita HospitalDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Osaka University Graduate School of MedicineDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental SciencesDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Yokohama City University Graduate School of MedicineDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental SciencesDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Osaka University Graduate School of MedicineAbstract In 2013, recurrent reports of diverse symptoms occurring in girls after receiving HPV vaccination appeared in Japanese media. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare quickly responded by announcing a temporary suspension of its recommendation for the vaccine. The HPV vaccination rate soon fell to almost zero. In the present study, we calculated the potential future numbers of cervical cancer incidence and death that will be increased by this policy decision. We have assumed that the number of yearly vaccinations is evenly distributed across a daily basis. Future incidence and death increased in females born in FY2000 are estimated to be 3651 and 904, respectively, 4566 and 1130 for those born in FY2001, 4645 and 1150 for those born in FY2002, and 4657 and 1153 for those born in FY2003. In FY2020, the large increase of risks to females born in FY2004 amounts to 12.0 females per day who will now be at a higher risk for acquiring of cervical cancer in their future, and 3.0 females per day newly at risk for future death from that disease in its progressive form. No one should be able to accept this situation. We sincerely ask the government to resume its recommendation for the vaccine as soon as possible.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-73106-z |
| spellingShingle | Asami Yagi Yutaka Ueda Satoshi Nakagawa Sayaka Ikeda Yusuke Tanaka Masayuki Sekine Etsuko Miyagi Takayuki Enomoto Tadashi Kimura Potential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from Japan’s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the HPV vaccine Scientific Reports |
| title | Potential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from Japan’s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the HPV vaccine |
| title_full | Potential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from Japan’s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the HPV vaccine |
| title_fullStr | Potential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from Japan’s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the HPV vaccine |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from Japan’s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the HPV vaccine |
| title_short | Potential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from Japan’s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the HPV vaccine |
| title_sort | potential for cervical cancer incidence and death resulting from japan s current policy of prolonged suspension of its governmental recommendation of the hpv vaccine |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-73106-z |
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