Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra
The Socotra Archipelago (Yemen) is an interesting biodiversity hotspot, with a significant proportion of endemic species that have evolved to survive in an arid subtropical environment, inscribed as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. The terrestrial ecosystems of Socotra face several threats, includin...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Forests and Global Change |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1183858/full |
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| author | Dario La Montagna Fabio Attorre Salem Hamdiah Petr Maděra Luca Malatesta Petr Vahalík Kay Van Damme Kay Van Damme Michele De Sanctis |
| author_facet | Dario La Montagna Fabio Attorre Salem Hamdiah Petr Maděra Luca Malatesta Petr Vahalík Kay Van Damme Kay Van Damme Michele De Sanctis |
| author_sort | Dario La Montagna |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Socotra Archipelago (Yemen) is an interesting biodiversity hotspot, with a significant proportion of endemic species that have evolved to survive in an arid subtropical environment, inscribed as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. The terrestrial ecosystems of Socotra face several threats, including climate change, overgrazing and soil degradation. Socotra Island has four endemic species of the genus Commiphora (Burseraceae). Little is known about their local distribution and ecology, yet these trees could be useful indicator species. Our study focuses on the distribution and niche characterisation of the four endemic Commiphora species of Socotra and how climate change may affect them. The aim is to improve insights into their habitats and to provide an essential basis for future local management plans and ecological restoration. We compared the current distribution with the forecasted potential distribution under a CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate scenario, allowing us to define target conservation areas and assess potential local extinction risks. To achieve this, we collected distribution data in the field throughout Socotra Island, covering the current distribution ranges of the four species. To assess the potential distribution of these species, we applied three models (GAM, MaxEnt, RandomForest) using bioclimatic, topographic and soil variables. Forecasts under a climate change scenario were made using bioclimatic variables from the CMCC-CESM2 climate model for two different socioeconomic pathways. The distribution of three endemic Socotran Commiphora is mainly correlated to clay content in the soil and winter precipitation, while C. socotrana is affected by seasonal precipitation and temperature. Under different potential future climate scenarios, the distribution of C. ornifolia is predicted to remain stable or increase, while C. parvifolia distribution could increase, yet C. planifrons and C. socotrana are predicted to undergo a strong reduction of suitable areas and an upward shift in the mountains. Our results highlight that it is essential to conserve the unique terrestrial ecosystems in Socotra and to preserve these endemic trees which have a wide range of ecosystem services. Updates on the predicted extinction risk assessment are fundamental to understand conservation priorities and strategize future actions to ensure the persistence of Socotran myrrh trees and other endangered endemic tree taxa on the island. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:44:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e4ad922823de43b6b18718ae2f58cfbd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2624-893X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:44:46Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Forests and Global Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-e4ad922823de43b6b18718ae2f58cfbd2023-06-08T11:03:14ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Forests and Global Change2624-893X2023-06-01610.3389/ffgc.2023.11838581183858Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of SocotraDario La Montagna0Fabio Attorre1Salem Hamdiah2Petr Maděra3Luca Malatesta4Petr Vahalík5Kay Van Damme6Kay Van Damme7Michele De Sanctis8Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, ItalyDepartment of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, ItalyBiotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, SloveniaDepartment of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, CzechiaDepartment of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, ItalyDepartment of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, CzechiaDepartment of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, CzechiaCentre for Academic Heritage and Archives and Ghent University Botanical Garden, Ghent University, Ghent, BelgiumDepartment of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, ItalyThe Socotra Archipelago (Yemen) is an interesting biodiversity hotspot, with a significant proportion of endemic species that have evolved to survive in an arid subtropical environment, inscribed as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. The terrestrial ecosystems of Socotra face several threats, including climate change, overgrazing and soil degradation. Socotra Island has four endemic species of the genus Commiphora (Burseraceae). Little is known about their local distribution and ecology, yet these trees could be useful indicator species. Our study focuses on the distribution and niche characterisation of the four endemic Commiphora species of Socotra and how climate change may affect them. The aim is to improve insights into their habitats and to provide an essential basis for future local management plans and ecological restoration. We compared the current distribution with the forecasted potential distribution under a CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate scenario, allowing us to define target conservation areas and assess potential local extinction risks. To achieve this, we collected distribution data in the field throughout Socotra Island, covering the current distribution ranges of the four species. To assess the potential distribution of these species, we applied three models (GAM, MaxEnt, RandomForest) using bioclimatic, topographic and soil variables. Forecasts under a climate change scenario were made using bioclimatic variables from the CMCC-CESM2 climate model for two different socioeconomic pathways. The distribution of three endemic Socotran Commiphora is mainly correlated to clay content in the soil and winter precipitation, while C. socotrana is affected by seasonal precipitation and temperature. Under different potential future climate scenarios, the distribution of C. ornifolia is predicted to remain stable or increase, while C. parvifolia distribution could increase, yet C. planifrons and C. socotrana are predicted to undergo a strong reduction of suitable areas and an upward shift in the mountains. Our results highlight that it is essential to conserve the unique terrestrial ecosystems in Socotra and to preserve these endemic trees which have a wide range of ecosystem services. Updates on the predicted extinction risk assessment are fundamental to understand conservation priorities and strategize future actions to ensure the persistence of Socotran myrrh trees and other endangered endemic tree taxa on the island.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1183858/fullCommiphoraBurseraceaeconservationecological niche modellingSocotraclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Dario La Montagna Fabio Attorre Salem Hamdiah Petr Maděra Luca Malatesta Petr Vahalík Kay Van Damme Kay Van Damme Michele De Sanctis Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Commiphora Burseraceae conservation ecological niche modelling Socotra climate change |
| title | Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra |
| title_full | Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra |
| title_fullStr | Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra |
| title_short | Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra |
| title_sort | climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic commiphora species burseraceae on the island of socotra |
| topic | Commiphora Burseraceae conservation ecological niche modelling Socotra climate change |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1183858/full |
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