Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions
Efforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the resident...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-02-01
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| Series: | ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/11/2/113 |
| _version_ | 1797479480033280000 |
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| author | Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata Raquel Zafrir Massimiliano Pittore Yvonne Merino |
| author_facet | Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata Raquel Zafrir Massimiliano Pittore Yvonne Merino |
| author_sort | Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Efforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaíso and Viña del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation units that avoid the inconvenience of having incomplete building-by-building footprints. A worst-case earthquake scenario is presented to calculate direct economic losses and highlight the degree of uncertainty imposed by exposure models in comparison with other parameters used to generate the seismic ground motions within a sensitivity analysis. This example study shows the great potential of using increasingly available VGI to update worldwide building exposure models as well as its importance in scenario-based seismic risk assessment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T21:46:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e4d099820326456fa8cdff8c5f465e99 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2220-9964 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T21:46:29Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information |
| spelling | doaj.art-e4d099820326456fa8cdff8c5f465e992023-11-23T20:16:01ZengMDPI AGISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information2220-99642022-02-0111211310.3390/ijgi11020113Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground MotionsJuan Camilo Gómez Zapata0Raquel Zafrir1Massimiliano Pittore2Yvonne Merino3Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, GermanySeismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, GermanySeismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, ChileEfforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaíso and Viña del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation units that avoid the inconvenience of having incomplete building-by-building footprints. A worst-case earthquake scenario is presented to calculate direct economic losses and highlight the degree of uncertainty imposed by exposure models in comparison with other parameters used to generate the seismic ground motions within a sensitivity analysis. This example study shows the great potential of using increasingly available VGI to update worldwide building exposure models as well as its importance in scenario-based seismic risk assessment.https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/11/2/113exposurebuildingsBayesian modeldownscalingOpenStreetMapground motion fields |
| spellingShingle | Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata Raquel Zafrir Massimiliano Pittore Yvonne Merino Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information exposure buildings Bayesian model downscaling OpenStreetMap ground motion fields |
| title | Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions |
| title_full | Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions |
| title_fullStr | Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions |
| title_short | Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions |
| title_sort | towards a sensitivity analysis in seismic risk with probabilistic building exposure models an application in valparaiso chile using ancillary open source data and parametric ground motions |
| topic | exposure buildings Bayesian model downscaling OpenStreetMap ground motion fields |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/11/2/113 |
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