Spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in Europe based on multiple environmental variables
Abstract The western conifer seed bug (WCSB) Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heidemann) (Heteroptera: Coreidae) is a pest insect that causes significant losses of coniferous trees worldwide. In this study, we sought to project the potential distribution of the WCSB based on dual CLIMEX modeling and rando...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10104 |
| _version_ | 1797776550719913984 |
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| author | Jae‐Min Jung Dae‐Hyeon Byeon Dong‐Hyeon Lee Youngwoo Nam Sunghoon Jung Wang‐Hee Lee |
| author_facet | Jae‐Min Jung Dae‐Hyeon Byeon Dong‐Hyeon Lee Youngwoo Nam Sunghoon Jung Wang‐Hee Lee |
| author_sort | Jae‐Min Jung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The western conifer seed bug (WCSB) Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heidemann) (Heteroptera: Coreidae) is a pest insect that causes significant losses of coniferous trees worldwide. In this study, we sought to project the potential distribution of the WCSB based on dual CLIMEX modeling and random forest (RF) analysis to obtain basic data for WCSB monitoring strategies. The CLIMEX model, a semimechanistic niche model that responds to climate‐based environmental parameters, is a species distribution model that focuses on regional climatic suitability. Given that this model can be used to select areas that are likely to reflect the climatically favorable spread of species, which we initially used CLIMEX to evaluate the potential distribution of the WCSB. The RF algorithm was used to predict the potential occurrence of WCSB and to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables for WCSB occurrence. Using the RF model, land cover was found to be the most important variable for classifying the presence/pseudo‐absence of the WCSB, with an accuracy of 77.1%. Climatic suitability for the WCSB was predicted to be 2.4‐fold higher in Southern Europe than in Western Europe, and the WCSB was predicted to occur primarily near coniferous forests. Given that CLIMEX and RF analyses yielded different prediction results, using the findings of both models may compensate for the shortcomings of these models when used independently. Consequently, to ensure greater prediction reliability, we believe that it would be beneficial to base predictions on the combined potential distribution data obtained using both modeling approaches. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T22:52:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e4fa76b7a7d64f7ca89378837cd02873 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T22:52:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-e4fa76b7a7d64f7ca89378837cd028732023-07-20T08:50:56ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582023-05-01135n/an/a10.1002/ece3.10104Spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in Europe based on multiple environmental variablesJae‐Min Jung0Dae‐Hyeon Byeon1Dong‐Hyeon Lee2Youngwoo Nam3Sunghoon Jung4Wang‐Hee Lee5Department of Biosystems Machinery Engineering Chungnam National University Daejeon KoreaDepartment of Biosystems Machinery Engineering Chungnam National University Daejeon KoreaDepartment of Environment and Forest Resources Chungnam National University Daejon KoreaDivision of Forest Diseases and Insect Pests National Institute of Forest Science Seoul KoreaDepartment of Applied Biology Chungnam National University Daejeon KoreaDepartment of Biosystems Machinery Engineering Chungnam National University Daejeon KoreaAbstract The western conifer seed bug (WCSB) Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heidemann) (Heteroptera: Coreidae) is a pest insect that causes significant losses of coniferous trees worldwide. In this study, we sought to project the potential distribution of the WCSB based on dual CLIMEX modeling and random forest (RF) analysis to obtain basic data for WCSB monitoring strategies. The CLIMEX model, a semimechanistic niche model that responds to climate‐based environmental parameters, is a species distribution model that focuses on regional climatic suitability. Given that this model can be used to select areas that are likely to reflect the climatically favorable spread of species, which we initially used CLIMEX to evaluate the potential distribution of the WCSB. The RF algorithm was used to predict the potential occurrence of WCSB and to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables for WCSB occurrence. Using the RF model, land cover was found to be the most important variable for classifying the presence/pseudo‐absence of the WCSB, with an accuracy of 77.1%. Climatic suitability for the WCSB was predicted to be 2.4‐fold higher in Southern Europe than in Western Europe, and the WCSB was predicted to occur primarily near coniferous forests. Given that CLIMEX and RF analyses yielded different prediction results, using the findings of both models may compensate for the shortcomings of these models when used independently. Consequently, to ensure greater prediction reliability, we believe that it would be beneficial to base predictions on the combined potential distribution data obtained using both modeling approaches.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10104CLIMEXenvironmental variablerandom forestspatial distributionwestern conifer seed bug |
| spellingShingle | Jae‐Min Jung Dae‐Hyeon Byeon Dong‐Hyeon Lee Youngwoo Nam Sunghoon Jung Wang‐Hee Lee Spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in Europe based on multiple environmental variables Ecology and Evolution CLIMEX environmental variable random forest spatial distribution western conifer seed bug |
| title | Spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in Europe based on multiple environmental variables |
| title_full | Spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in Europe based on multiple environmental variables |
| title_fullStr | Spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in Europe based on multiple environmental variables |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in Europe based on multiple environmental variables |
| title_short | Spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in Europe based on multiple environmental variables |
| title_sort | spatial analysis of the occurrence of the western conifer seed bug leptoglossus occidentalis heteroptera coreidae in europe based on multiple environmental variables |
| topic | CLIMEX environmental variable random forest spatial distribution western conifer seed bug |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10104 |
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